HowtoraiseEurope‘sclimateambitionfor2030?
Implementinga-55%TargetintheEUPolicyArchitecture JakobGraichen|Berlin|23November2020 ETS&ESRcontributionstowardsa55%target HowtoraiseEurope‘sclimateambition│JakobGraichen│Berlin│23.11.2020 COMIA ETS ESR GHG (currentscope) Öko-InstitutVisionScenario MaxESR -59%-49% -55% MaxETS -63%-45% -55% CentralCase -61%-47% -55% COMImpactAssessment MIX55/REG/CPRICE -65% -39% 52.0%
2 OptionstoimplementamoreambitiousEUETScap(forstationaryinstallations) LinearReductionFactor•changesbetween~1and~1.3ptsby each150Mtrebasing•changesdependsignificantlyonthe startyearfornewLRF Cumulativenewallowances•decreasebetween7and8%byeach 150Mtrebasing•decreasebetween1and3%forLRF adjustmentfrom2023insteadof2025 HowtoraiseEurope‘sclimateambition│JakobGraichen│Berlin│23.11.2020
3 ExtendingthescopeoftheEUETS •Impactassessment5optionsforbuildings&transport •Currenttreatment•InclusioninEUETS•InclusioninEUETSandapplicationof ESR•SeparateEU-wideETS•MScarbontradingscheme •Inadditiondifferentoptionsforaviationandshipping HowtoraiseEurope‘sclimateambition│JakobGraichen│Berlin│23.11.2020 •Significantprosandconsexistforeachoption,assessmentdependsessentiallyonviews/corebeliefson •policymixandcost-efficiencyconsiderations •distributionalpetitioneffects •necessarypolitical&administrativeefforts/vulnerabilitiesplianceconsiderations •Pathwaytowardsclimateneutrality •Genericdebatesleadtonowhere,itsallaboutspecificprovisions
4 MSRiscrucialelementbutneedstobestrengthened 2500 TNACandCOVID-19crisis(currentMSRrules) TNAC[millionallowances] 2000 1500 1000 500 02008 2010 2012 HistoricCurrenttargetsscenario 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 CurrentpoliciesscenarioCurrenttargetsscenario&COVID-19 Currentpoliciesscenario&COVID-19Thresholds Lowemissionscenarios:MSRisnotabletocopewithsurplusevenwithoutCOVID-effects Highemissionscenario:MSRdeliversasintendedevenwithCOVID-effects HowtoraiseEurope‘sclimateambition│JakobGraichen│Berlin│23.11.2020
5 Apolicymixwillbenecessarytoachievethe2030target HowtoraiseEurope‘sclimateambition│JakobGraichen│Berlin│23.11.2020
6 Thankyouforyourattention Linktostudy:Öko-InstitutandAgoraEnergiewende(2020):HowtoRaiseEurope’sClimateAmbitionsfor2030:Implementinga-55%TargetinEUPolicyArchitecture https://www.agora-energiewende.de/en/publications/howto-raise-europes-climate-ambitions-for-2030/ How
toraiseEurope‘sclimateambition│JakobGraichen│Berlin│23.11.2020
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