2012年10月11日
中国：银行
证券研究报告
信贷观察5：估计总潜在不良贷款率为4-6%，而非10%+；买入优质股；下调光大银行评级至卖出
总潜在不良贷款率：4%-6%，而非10%以上基于历史数据、国际间比较以及自下而上的行业前景分析，我们估算了上市银行的总潜在不良贷款规模（即已公布不良贷款与潜在不良贷款生成之和），鉴于EBITDA利息保障倍数仍处于5倍以上的稳健水平，我们估算2012/13年上市银行的总潜在不良率介于4%至6%之间，远低于市场所担忧的10%以上。
多数企业的困难时期出现在2012年历史数据表明，企业的隐含不良贷款率与GDP增速变化呈负相关。
由于我们预计2013年GDP增长的减速势头有望趋缓（不会像2012年那样从2011年的9.3%骤降至7.6%），再加之借款利率降低的影响，我们认为潜在不良率的增长应该会在2013年有所放缓。
就结构而言，消费信贷是关键超过150%的中国企业负债/GDP之比可能会导致企业贷款/投资需求在长期内保持低迷。
因此，我们认为消费信贷/房贷/消费增长是中国实现再平衡、避免重蹈日本衰退覆辙及银行股估值下行的关键所在。
*全文翻译随后提供 马宁执业证书编号:S14+86(10)6627-3063ning.ma@北京高华证券有限责任公司程博为执业证书编号:S01+86(10)6627-3095bowei.cheng@北京高华证券有限责任公司 目前已趋向企稳；买入优质股目前我们看到企业盈利和GDP增速已有所企稳，但尚无加速增长迹象。
11月领导换届后的经济政策将是决定银行股究竟是呈周期性走高还是估值继续结构性下行的关键。
我们看好拨备前营业利润、资产负债表以及业务实力强劲的优质股，包括拥有买入评级的招商银行H股/兴业银行（二者均位于亚太强力买入名单），农业银行H/A、建设银行H/A、工商银行H/A、民生银行H/A，以及重庆农村商业银行。
我们因估值因素将宁波银行评级上调至中性，并因光大银行资本充足率及基本面弱于同业而将其评级下调至卖出。
评级为买入的银行股风险回报具有吸引力我们因调整了估值基础而调整了研究范围内银行股的12个月目标价格，目前我们不再使用2012年已公布每股净资产，而是使用在总潜在不良率为6%假设情景下的2013年调整后每股净资产来计算估值。
拥有买入评级的个股估值普遍低于悲观假设下（剔除增长因素且基于9%的潜在不良率调整每股净资产价值）的隐含估值。
由于今年上半年银行业绩表现强劲，我们将2012年的税后净利润假设提高了1%，但因银行贷款议价能力降低，且假设没有大规模经济刺激方案或房地产政策调整出炉而将2013/14年税后净利润假设分别下调了6%/8%。
报告看点 1)我们在中国企业当前EBITDA利息保障倍数与历史数据以及其它国家数据之间进行了比较，以明确总潜在不良率。
2)我们评估了在不良贷款中有多少是周期性的，有多少是结构性的。
3)我们在不同的不良贷款率假设下对中国银行业的净资产状况进行了压力测试。
相关研究 中国：金融服务：中国信贷观察4：一季度疲弱，但有望反弹；杠杆上升是一个长期问题，2012年5月8日 A股上市企业的隐含不良贷款率与GDP增速变动呈负相关 14%12%10% 8%6%4%2%0% 10.4% ImpliedNPLratio(EBITDA因此，投资者应当考虑到本公司可能存在可能影响本报告客观性的利益冲突，不应视本报告为作出投资决策的唯一因素。
有关分析师的申明和其他重要信息，见信息披露附录，或请与您的投资代表联系。
北京高华证券有限责任公司 投资研究 2012年10月11日 Tableofcontents TotalpotentialNPLsmaynotbeasbadasmarketfeared;Buyqualitybanks
3 Wesee4%-6%totalpotentialNPLratioforChinabanks,notover10%assomemayfear
4 Adjustedbookfactorsincorporatedistress;qualitybanksshowattractiverisk/reward 10 Bulkofcyclicalcorporatedistressalreadyshownin12E;couldstabilize/easein2013E 19 Highcorporateleveragealong-termriskforChinabanks;consumercreditcritical 23 Fine-tune2012ENPAT,cut2013E/2014ENIM/NPATassumingnofiscalreforms 29 CEB(601818.SS,Sell):DowngradetoSellonoverdueloansurgeandcapitalconcerns 33 BONB(002142.SZ,Neutral):UpgradetoNeutralonstableassetqualityandprofitability 35 DisclosureAppendix 42 PricesinthisreportarebasedonthemarketcloseofOctober10,2012,unlessotherwisestated.图表1:ChinaH-share/A-sharebankstradeat0.9X/0.9X2013Eadjustedbookonaverage H-shares(HKD) Rating ICBC(H) 1398.HK Buy BOC(H) 3988.HK Neutral CCB(H) 0939.HK Buy ABC(H) 1288.HK Buy BoCom(H) 3328.HK Sell CMB(H) 3968.HK Buy* CNCB(H) 0998.HK Neutral Minsheng(H)1988.HK Buy CQRCB 3618.HK Buy H-shareaverage ExcludingCMBH-shares A-shares(Rmb) ICBC(A) 601398.SS Buy BOC(A) 601988.SS Neutral CCB(A) 601939.SS Buy ABC(A) 601288.SS Buy BoCom(A) 601328.SS Neutral CMB(A) 600036.SS Buy CNCB(A) 601998.SS Neutral Minsheng(A)600016.SS Buy SPDB 600000.SS Neutral Industrial 601166.SS Buy* PAB 000001.SZ Neutral Hua
Xia 600015.SS Sell BONB 002142.SZ Neutral BOBJ 601169.SS Neutral BONJ 601009.SS Sell CEB 601818.SS Sell A-share
average Bigbanksaverage Shareholdingbanksaverage CityBankAverage 10-Oct Price 4.692.965.493.105.4313.823.896.323.20 MktCap (US$bn) 21010617610339382322
4 3.802.734.062.484.3010.213.695.717.4412.1113.298.209.186.967.652.68 201115154983733262321207.0 647316 12MTarget Price 6.23.57.34.75.720.64.69.24.1 5.02.95.93.84.716.73.77.48.819.814.47.110.28.17.72.7 PotentialUpside/ downside 32%18%33%52%5%49%18%46%28% 32%6%45%53%9%64%0%30%18%64%8%-13%11%16%1%1% P/B(X) 2012E1.180.831.181.070.871.210.750.880.790.970.94 2013E1.040.751.080.930.791.040.660.750.740.860.84 1.180.941.081.050.851.100.870.980.800.950.810.801.230.740.940.980.961.060.910.97 1.040.850.990.920.770.950.770.840.690.830.710.721.080.570.830.830.840.950.790.83 Adj.P/B(X) P/E(X) P/PPOP(X) Divyld(%) EPSgrowth(%) 2013E1.110.821.100.930.851.060.740.810.730.910.89 122012E5.85.26.05.46.05.84.54.14.75.35.3 2013E5.74.85.94.95.85.74.14.14.65.15.1 2012E2013E 4.0 3.8 3.3 3.0 3.9 3.8 3.7 3.2 3.7 3.5 3.7 3.6 2.6 2.5 2.6 2.7 3.5 3.3 3.4 3.3 3.4 3.2 2012E
6.06.85.96.51.53.95.64.26.15.25.2 2013E6.17.36.07.13.34.45.65.56.75.85.8 1.110.931.010.920.830.970.870.910.760.900.850.861.140.770.870.930.910.990.880.92 5.85.95.45.35.95.35.24.54.74.75.55.77.45.25.85.3 5.55.65.26.1 5.75.55.44.95.75.24.84.54.35.05.35.47.55.05.94.8 5.35.45.06.1 4.03.73.63.63.63.43.12.92.93.24.43.34.93.14.03.93.63.73.44.0 3.83.43.53.23.53.32.93.02.73.03.33.14.83.03.93.23.43.53.13.9 6.06.06.56.62.04.34.83.82.33.00.04.42.33.92.82.83.86.33.03.0 6.16.46.57.24.44.94.85.02.74.70.04.72.34.92.83.24.46.53.83.3 2012E9.74.610.324.9 (11.1)15.16.918.120.49.89.1 9.74.610.324.9(11.1)15.16.918.18.413.319.26.710.60.720.213.410.712.410.010.5 2013E1.06.81.48.33.52.78.50.02.34.04.2 1.06.81.48.33.52.78.50.09.8(4.5)3.46.7-1.75.7-1.611.03.84.44.60.8 Note:*denotesstockisonourregionalConvictionList.Alltargetpricesareona12-monthbasis.资料来源：Companydata,GaoHuaSecuritiesResearchestimates. 高华证券投资研究 中国：银行
2 2012年10月11日 中国：银行 TotalpotentialNPLsmaynotbeasbadasmarketfeared;Buyqualitybanks Manyinvestorsareconcernedaboutthe“totalpotentialNPLratio”ofChinabanks,i.e.reportedNPLspluslongtermpotentialNPLgenerationinmanycorporatesectorswithovercapacityandfallingprofitability,suchas: 1)Cyclicalsectors,includingsteel,cementandmining.Thesesectorstendtohaveovercapacityissuesgiventheconsiderableinvestmentoverthepast10years. 2)Export-orientedsectors,includingsolarenergyandshipbuilding,whichalsofaceovercapacityissuesasglobaldemanddeclines. WebelievesomeofthesecorporateloanscouldbedowngradedtoNPLsoverthemediumterm.However,manyofthesetotalpotentialNPLsmaynotbereportedasNPLsin2012Eor2013E/2014E,giventhestilldouble-digitloangrowthinChinathathelpedpaniesintermsofliquidity,thatsomecorporatesmayremainsolventinthefirsttwoorthreeyearsofloss-making,andthattheChinagovernmentmayhelptobailoutandrestructuremanyofpanies. heless,webelievemanyinvestorsmayconsiderpaniesmerciallyunviableinthelongterm,andthushavebeendiscountingChinabanks’valuationsince2H09,pendingtheemergenceofclearsignswhereChina’sdomesticGDPgrowthandoverseasexportsrecoverandelerate. Inthisreport,weassessthefollowingissues: 1)TotalpotentialNPLsofChinabanks,iftheweaknessincorporateprofitabilitycontinues,fromthreedifferentperspectives:China’shistoricalcorporateprofitabilitytrendvs.reportedNPLs,parisonofcorporateprofitabilityvs.reportedNPLsoflistedbanksinthesecountries,andChinabanks’loanexposuretoriskysectorswithpotentiallyhighNPLformation,suchasmanufacturing/mining/wholesale/retail. 2)Cyclicalslowdownimpacts,andhowmuchcorporatedistress/assetqualityhasalreadybeenreflectedinthecurrentfinancialdistressofnon-financialcorporates,andinChinabanks’valuation. 3)Long-termhighcorporateleveragerisksandtheirimpactonChinabanks’loanpricingpower/NIM,bankde-rating,andthesolutionstosuchimbalances. Ourkeyconclusions: TotalpotentialNPLs:Chinabanks’totalpotentialNPLratiosin2012E/2013Ecouldrangebetween4%and6%basedon1H12corporatedistresslevels,andthereisnoevidencetosupportmanyinvestors’concernofover10%totalpotentialNPLratioorasystemicbankingcrisis,astheprofitabilityofChinacorporatesremainsrelativelyhealthyfromhistoricalandparisonperspectives. Cyclically,thebulkofcorporatedistressmayhavealreadyhappenedin2012E;webelievepressurein2013Ewillbelower.WealsobelieveChinacorporateimpliedNPLshavehistoricallybeennegativelycorrelatedwithGDPgrowthratechanges.AsweexpectGDPgrowthmomentumslowdowntobemoremodest,ifnotimprove,in2013Ethanin2012E(ourGlobalECSteamforecasts8.0%GDPgrowthin2013E),wheretheGDPgrowthratefellsharplyto7.6%from9.3%inFY11,coupledwiththeimpactofrecentborrowingratecuts,webelievetotalpotentialNPLgrowthratewillmoderatein2013E. Structurally,webelieveconsumercreditdevelopmentinChinaiskeytoavoidaJapan-stylerecessionandde-ratingforbanks.AhighChinacorporatedebt/GDPratioofover150%mayleadtolong-termweakcorporateloan/investmentdemandandassetqualityrisks,inourview.Therefore,webelievepoliciestoencourageconsumercredit/mortgage/consumptiongrowthsarecriticalforChinarebalancingandavoidingaJapan-stylerecession/bankderating. WestresstestChinabanks’2013EadjustedbookbasedontotalpotentialNPLs,andusethebasecase2013EadjustedBVPStovalueChinabanks.Ourbuy-ratednameshaveattractiverisk/reward,basedon: 高华证券投资研究
3 2012年10月11日 中国：银行 oPotentialupsidetoourtargetprices:Weadjustour12-monthP/B-basedtargetpriceforourChinabankscoverage,aswerolloverourvaluationbasisto2013EadjustedBVPS(previously2012EreportedBVPS),whichassumesaverage6%totalpotentialNPLsvs.ourreportedNPLratioforecastof1.1%. oDownsideriskstoourbearcaseimpliedvaluation(onex-growthP/Band2013EadjustedBVPSinthebearcase),whichassumes9%totalpotentialNPLs. WewillwatchcloselyforpotentialpolicychangesaftertheleadershipchangesinNovember: oOnthepositiveside,weexpectgovernmentministriestobemoreproactiveindealingwithnear-termcyclicalslowdownissuesandlong-termstructuralreformissues,whichwebelievecouldbenefitChinabanks’earnings/valuations,thanthecurrentpolicyinertiaduetotheingleadershipchanges. oOnthenegativeside,therecouldberisksthatthegovernmentmaycontinuepropertytighteningmeasureswhileencouragingcorporate/infrastructureinvestmentatlowerinterestrates,whichcouldfurtherincreasethecorporateleverage,imbalanceintheChineseeconomy,andlong-termNPL/NIMrisksforChinabanks,inourview. Wesee4%-6%totalpotentialNPLratioforChinabanks,notover10%assomemayfear WeusethreemethodstoestimatethetotalpotentialNPLratioforChinabanksunderourcoverage,thefirsttwoofpareChina’scurrentcorporateprofitability/stresslevelvs.historicalnumbersandvs.othercountrieswithsimilarcorporateprofitability.Subsequently,weusetheseasindictorstodetermineparablereportedNPLratioofChinabanks. Thethreemethodsyieldsimilarresults:TheChinabanks'totalpotentialNPLratiocouldrangebetween4%and6%basedon1H12corporatedistresslevels,andthereisnoevidencetosupportmarketconcernsofatotalpotentialNPLratioofover10%orasystemicbankingcrisis. ThisisalsolowerthanthecurrentsharepricesimpliedaverageNPLratioforH-sharelistedbanksof6.1%(Exhibit2),suggestingthatcurrentvaluationsmayhavealreadyfactoredinthecorporatedistress,partlycausedbythesignificantslowdowninGDPfrom9.3%in2011to7.8%in1H12. 高华证券投资研究
4 2012年10月11日 图表2:H-/A-sharelistedbanks’currentsharepriceimpliedNPLratiosare6.1%/5.4%onaverageTotalimpliedNPLratiosfromChinabanks’currentvaluations 12ENPLratioFormationcoveredbygeneralprovisionImpliednewformation 9%8.0% 8% 8.1% 8.1% 7% 6.0%5.7% 6% 5.4% 5% 6.2%5.7% 5.0%4.9% 6.0%6.0%5.1% 5.9%6.0% 5.1% 5.2% 5.5% 4.6% 4.6%4.7% 5.8%5.1%5.3% 4% 3.5% 3% 2% 1% 0% 中国：银行 ICBC(H)BOC(H)CCB(H)ABC(H)BoCom(H)CMB(H)CNCB(H)Minsheng(H)CQRCBICBC(A)BOC(A)CCB(A)ABC(A)BoCom(A)CMB(A)CNCB(A)Minsheng(A) SPDBIndustrialBank PABHuaXia BONBBOBJBONJ CEB 高华证券投资研究 资料来源：Companydata,GaoHuaSecuritiesResearchestimates. 1)ComparingEBITDAinterestcoveroflistedcorporatesandunlistedpaniesinChinafromahistoricalperspective:1H12seemstomirror2004/2005,whichreportedNPLratioof4.4%onaverageforChinabanksOurupdatedbottom-upEBITDAinterestcoverandimpliedNPLratioanalysisof1,785A-sharelistednon-financialcorporatesin1H12showthattheimpliedNPLratioshotupto10.8%vs.5.7%in2011,duetorevenuegrowthslowdown,marginpressure,worseningcashcycle,aswellasrisingdebt/equity(D/E)andfundingcosts(seeExhibit3forsummaryandAppendixfordetails).WedefineimpliedNPLratioasthedebtoflistedcorporateswithEBITDAlessthaninterestexpenseasapercentageofthetotaldebtoflistedcorporates.Webelievetheprofitabilityoflistedcorporatesandbanks’NPLsin2012couldbesimilartothosein2004and2005,because:1)In2005,theA-sharelistedcorporateshadsimilarimpliedNPLratioof10.4%vs.10.8%in1H12(Exhibit3);2)TheEBITDAinterestcoverofunlistedChinapanieswithtotalrevenueas179%ofGDPin2011was5.1Xin1H12,vs.5.1Xin2004and5.4Xin2005(Exhibit4);and
5 2012年10月11日 中国：银行 3)Therewerebankloansurgesin2003(up23%yoy)andsubsequentcreditandpropertytighteningin2004/1H05,similartoloansurgesin2009andtighteningfrom2H10throughout1H12. 图表3:ImpliedNPLratiobasedonEBITDAinterestcoveranalysisof1,785A-sharelistedcorporatesroseto10.8%in1H12(from5.7%in2011),similarto2005’slevelof10.4%ImpliedNPLratioanalysisbasedonEBITDAinterestcoverofChinalistednon-financialcorporates 2002 2003 2004 2005 Fullyear2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Semi-annual 1H11 2H11 1H12 No.paniessurveyed 1,113 1,159 1,435 1,435 1,434 1,423 1,575 1,790 1,789 1,785 1,789 1,785 1,785 Implied
NPLratio(EBITDA8
6.86.7
675.15.45.65.95.65.1
4.8
5 4.3 43.13.23.6 32.02
1 0 资料来源：CEIC,GaoHuaSecuritiesResearch. 高华证券投资研究
6 2012年10月11日 中国：银行 Exhibit5showsthatin2004and2005,ChinabankshaveaveragereportedNPLratiosof5.3%and3.5%respectively,averaging4.4%forthetwoyears.Webelievethis4.4%averagecouldbeamoreuratereflectionoftotalreportedNPLsduringthe2004/2005slowdown,asitreducestheimpactfromaveragec.20%yoyloangrowthforChinabanksespeciallythesmalleronesin2005. Webelievethetrendfromthisbottom-upA-shareEBITDAinterestcoverstudyhasbeenconsistentwiththedistressofthecorporatesectorsthatwehavemonitoredsince2003,althoughtherearemanycaveatsincluding: 1)Thestudy’ssamplesizeissmall.However,itrepresentsthestrongersubgroupofChinacorporates,withthesubjectcorporates’salesrevenueinFY11amountingtoabout38%ofGDP; 2)thestudyonlyconsidersthecurrentEBITDAinterestcoverofcorporates,anddoesnotconsidercorporates’otherloanrepaymentsources,suchascash,freefundsandrealassetssales,whilebanksusuallyconsiderthesefactorsinclassifyingNPLs;and 3)thesectordistributionforA-sharescouldbemoreskewedtocyclicalsectorssuchasmaterialsandmining,whichountfor20%ofthetotaldebtoflistedcorporates(Exhibit8).ThismaydifferfromtheoverallsectordistributionofChinabankloans.Forinstance,weestimatemining/moditysectorscouldountforonly8%ofICBC’sloanbookbasedonICBC’sloansectordisclosure. 图表5:ComparingimpliedNPLratiooflistedcorporatesvs.reportedNPLratiooflistedbanks:ThecurrentsituationinChinaseemstomirrorthatin2005(NPLratioof3.5%),HKin2002(NPLratioof3.2%),Singaporein1997(NPLratioof3.6%)andTaiwanin2000(NPLratioof5.8%) ImpliedNPLratio(%) 19971998 China 10.6 15.8 HK 5.5 17.8 India(listed) Indiamanufacturingandservices(unlisted) Korea Japan 13.5 Singapore 11.3 46.9 Taiwan 5.0 14.0 AveragereportedNPLratioso ratiosoflistedbanks(%) ChinaHKIndia(listedbanks)KoreaJapanSingaporeTaiwan 1997 0.714.3 0.03.60.0 1998 4.315.5 0.010.3 0.0 Averagecreditcosts oflistedbanks(bp) ChinaHKIndiaKoreaJapanSingaporeTaiwan 19971998 46149144304137 133128269351255 1999 11.220.0 19.19.69.8 1999 19.59.59.8 7.112.6 0.0 1999 189171385165131 2000 7.814.6 5.38.212.5 2000 13.86.89.78.16.29.35.8 2000 889512231014811 2001 10.719.4 4.517.222.4 2001 9.64.55.53.38.28.412.3 2001 62892023022106994 2002 8.112.4 6.29.417.3 2002 9.83.24.82.56.97.94.9 2002 95107176270174 60439 2003 9.414.3 4.18.36.7 2003 9.52.74.22.24.66.83.5 2003 11066 182229 8353207 2004 7.26.6 10.9 3.37.69.7 2004 5.31.74.01.79.15.12.7 2004 969 51178 6718129 2005 10.43.0 10.0 3.56.09.1 2005 3.51.12.31.02.13.91.6 2005 751588688920302 2006 8.32.712.95.72.81.53.77.5 2006 2.90.82.00.71.92.91.8 2006 7618121571718234 2007 5.84.710.16.52.31.41.43.7 2007 2.10.62.00.71.81.51.6 2007 692912751241297 2008 12.58.87.0 16.43.70.83.7 15.6 2008 1.50.92.31.32.01.71.4 2008 11756 117103 375094 2009 5.25.78.44.412.23.819.512.2 2009 1.11.02.21.43.52.31.1 2009 3966140113647965 2010 2.45.08.15.85.81.80.15.8 2010 1.00.71.81.73.31.60.6 2010 4225103120433828 2011 5.76.4 7.68.7 8.7 2011 0.80.91.91.43.11.20.4 2011 50228788133022 1H1210.8 1H120.92 1H1256 资料来源：Companydata,GoldmanSachsResearch,GaoHuaSecuritiesResearch. 高华证券投资研究
7 2012年10月11日 中国：银行 2)parison:Chinabanks’impliedNPLratiomayrangebetween3.2%and5.8%;ChinahashigherEBITDAinterestcoverthanIndiaandBrazil Exhibitparesthebottom-upimpliedNPLratiobasedonEBITDAinterestcoverforthelistednon-financialcorporatesinvariousAsiancountriesandwefoundthatHongKongin2002,Singaporein1997,Indiain2004andTaiwanin2000hadsimilarimpliedNPLratiosof12.4%,11.3%,10.9%and12.5%respectively,whicharemodestlyhigherthanChinalistedcorporates’10.8%in1H12,butstillwithinouranalysisrangeifweassumeacontinuedmodestGDP/corporateearningsslowdown. Duringtheseperiods,thelistedbanks’averageNPLratioswere3.2%,3.6%,4.0%and5.8%inHK,Singapore,IndiaandTaiwan. Moreover,wenoteChina’slistednon-financials’averageEBITDAinterestcoverhasbeenhigherthanIndiaandBrazil’slistednonfinancials’EBITDAinterestcover,partlyasChina’sborrowingcostshavebeenmuchlowerthanthoseofthetwocountries(Exhibit6).Indialistedbanks,whichinvestorshaverelativelylessconcernonNPLclassificationissue,haveaverageNPLratioforlistedbanksof1.9%in2011(2.9%grossNPLratioincludingoverdueloans)vs.Chinalistedbanks’averageof0.8%.Brazillistedbankshavea5.8%90daysoverdueloansratioonaverage. TheEBITDAinterestcoverageoflistedandunlistedcorporatesdatainChinaandIndia,whichisbasedonover410,000paniesinChinaandIndia’smanufacturingandservicesector,showsthatChinahashighercorporateaverageEBITDAinterestcoverthanIndia. 图表6:ChinalistedcorporateshavehigherhistoricalEBITDAinterestcoverthanIndiaandBrazil,partlyduetolowerinterestratesinthecountryEBITDAinterestparisonoflistedcorporates EBITDAerstcoverage(x) 199719981999 China(listed) 5.4 3.5 4.8 Chinaindustrials(unlisted) 2.0 HK 4.6 2.5 2.5 India(listedcorporate) Indiamanufacturingandservices(unlisted) Brazil Japan 6.2 5.5 6.5 Korea 1.85 1.3 1.4 Singapore 7.0 4.5 5.9 Taiwan 8.5 6.1 7.5 US 7.63
7.187.47 2000 8.43.13.2 8.32.37.38.26.87 2001 7.93.22.9 7.52.54.65.75.76 2002 7.93.63.8 2.88.85.05.79.26.23 2003 9.14.33.7 2.910.4 7.16.815.26.91 2004 10.25.16.1 5.63.311.211.39.322.18.22 2005 9.15.49.4 6.14.713.811.39.117.98.55 2006 9.05.67.26.67.05.912.810.48.516.58.63 2007 12.65.97.68.25.98.2 11.811.2 9.918.39.23 2008 7.44.87.97.63.57.88.46.711.212.19.53 2009 10.25.68.77.34.35.4 10.57.54.56.1 8.84 2010 12.16.8 11.79.24.46.7 11.610.0 7.48.010.87 2011 10.06.7 11.1 3.06.312.18.3 7.812.11 1H127.05.1 4.5 12.21 资料来源：NBS,Wind,CEIC,Datastream,Capitaline,Securitiesfilings,FinancialSupervisoryServiceviaQuantiwise,TEJ,GoldmanSachsResearch,GaoHuaSecuritiesResearch. GiventherelativelyhealthiercorporateEBITDAinterestcoverinChina,despitesomedeteriorationin1H12partlyduetothecyclicalmacroslowdown,wefortablewithourestimateof4%-6%totalpotentialNPLratiofortheChinabanksunderourcoverage. 3)Bottom-uploanexposurebreakdownofChinabanks:Stresstestsuggestsaverage5.2%totalpotentialNPLratio 高华证券投资研究
8 2012年10月11日 中国：银行 ordingtoourbottom-upEBITDAinterestcover/impliedNPLstudyofA-sharelistednon-financialcorporates,andChinabanks’indicationonNPLsectordistribution,webelievethedeteriorationofcorporateassetqualityhappensmostlyinindustrial,mining,aswellaswholesaleandpanies(classifiedunderconsumerstaplesinExhibit8). UsingconservativeassumptionsonthetotalpotentialNPLratiofortheseloanexposureperbelow,ifweassumetheweakprofitabilityofthesesectorseendemic,weestimateanadditional4.5%potentialNPLratioforlistedbanks,ofthereported0.9ppNPLratioin1H12.ThissuggeststotalpotentialNPLratioofaround5.2%. Industrialandpanies:10%NPLratiovs.averagereported1.3%NPLratiocurrently. Localgovernmentfundingvehicles(LGFV):15%NPLratiovs.reportedNPLratioforthissegmentrangingfrom5bpsto30bpscurrently.Mostbanksreportedonly5%to15%oftotalLGFVloansthatcouldnotbeadequatelycoveredbytheprojects’operatingcashflow,loancollaterals/guarantees,etc,andneedlocalgovernmentfiscalsubsidiestostayafloat.Our15%NPLratioassumptionisbasedonadistressedsituationwheresomelocalgovernmentmayfacesolvencyissueswithoutthecentralgovernment’shelp. Wholesaleandretail,includingsteeltradersandmoditytraders:weassume10%NPLratiovs.averagereported1.6%NPLratiocurrently. 图表7:Listedbanks’exposuretoriskysectorsandamoreconservativeNPLratioforecastspointtoanaverage5.2%NPLratio 1H12As%oftotalloansManufacturing&miningWholesalesandretailsLGFVs ICBCCCBABCBOCBoComCMBCNCBMinshengCQRCBIndustrialSPDBPABHuaxiaCEBBOBJBONBBONJAverage 15%8%8% 19%4%6% 24%7%7% 27%7%8% 20%13% 9% 20%11% 6% 21%12%11% 16%8% 12% 16%3% 12% 23%10%10% 24%13% 9% 23%18% 6% 31%15% 7% 25%12%12% 18%11%13% 25%15%13% 21%14%13% 22%11%10% AddingpotentialNPLratiosofthefollowingthreeriskysectors'potetnialNPLs:1)manufacturingandminingNPLratiosto10%;2)wholesale/retailersto10%;and3)LGFVsto15% Manufacturing&mining 1.2%1.9%2.4%2.7%1.7%2.0%2.1% 1.4% 1.6% 2.3%2.4%2.0%3.1%2.5%1.6%2.1%1.8% LGFVs 1.2%0.9%1.0%1.2%1.3%0.9%1.7% 1.8% 1.8% 1.6%1.3%1.0%1.0%1.8%2.0%2.0%2.0% Wholesalesandretails 0.6%0.4%0.7%0.7%1.1%1.1%1.2% 0.7% 0.3% 1.0%1.3%1.5%1.5%1.2%0.9%1.3%1.1% AdditionalNPLratios 3.0%3.3%4.1%4.5%4.1%3.9%5.0% 3.8% 3.8% 4.8%5.0%4.5%5.6%5.5%4.5%5.4%4.9% TotalpotentialNPLratios 3.9%4.3%5.5%5.4%4.9%4.4%5.6% 4.5% 5.0% 5.2%5.5%5.2%6.4%6.1%5.0%6.1%5.7% Memo:1H12reportedNPLratioforeachsector Manufacturing&mining 1.8%2.1% Wholesalesandretails 2.9%3.8% Othercorporateloans 0.4%0.7% Consumer 0.6%0.3% TotalNPLratios 0.9%1.0% 2.0%2.4%1.2%0.8%1.4% 1.5%1.5%0.7%0.6%0.9% NANANANA0.8% 0.9%1.0%0.4%0.4%0.6% 1.0%1.1%0.4%0.4%0.6% NANANA0.5%0.7% 0.7%0.8%1.1%1.7%1.2% 1.2%1.0% NA0.4%0.4% 0.7%0.9%0.5%0.3%0.5% NANANA0.3%0.7% 1.4%1.2%0.4%0.5%0.8% 1.4%1.2% NANA0.6% NANANANA0.5% NANANANA0.7% NANANANA0.8% 2.0%1.4%1.0%4.5%5.2% 1.3%1.6% 资料来源：Companydata,GaoHuaSecuritiesResearchestimates. 高华证券投资研究
9 2012年10月11日 中国：银行 图表8:OurA-shareimpliedNPLstudyshowssignificantdeteriorationforindustrials,materialsandconsumerstaplesin1H12,butpropertysectorimprovedTheimpliedNPLratioofA-sharelistedcorporatesbasedonEBITDAinterestcover 2005 2006 2007 ImpliedNPLsratiobysector 2008 2009 2010 2011 1H11 1H12 YoY(%)HoH(%) %oftotalDebt%oftotalNPL 1H12 1H12 ConsumerDiscretionaryConsumerStaplesEnergyProperty/realestateHealthCareIndustrialsInformationTechnologyMaterialsmunicationServicesUtilitiesOtherTotal 23.1%24.8%1.0%12.7%18.9%8.2%53.7%6.1%0.0%1.1%61.6%10.4% 18.0%16.9%1.7%14.5%19.3%7.3%41.3%5.4%0.0%0.9%41.5%8.3% 11.4%12.7%0.2%5.1%13.3%4.3%21.2%5.2%0.0%1.8%36.2%5.1% 资料来源：Wind,GaoHuaSecuritiesResearch. 24.9%22.0%0.6%1.6%8.6%20.8%16.8%11.5%0.0%12.7%60.2%12.5% 6.6%10.9%0.8%1.1%12.9%10.4%19.5%4.3%0.0%1.8%30.7%5.2% 5.2%14.9%0.3%0.5%5.0%1.5%21.6%3.0%0.0%1.5%3.9%2.4% 8.6%14.4%0.1%1.7%15.6%9.1%23.4%5.3%0.0%2.4%1.3%5.7% 8.3%18.4%0.2%13.1%8.3%8.3%27.4%4.3%0.0%4.5%1.5%6.5% 7.0%33.2% 0.2%11.9%4.6% 11.5%32.1%22.6%0.0%1.5%1.1%10.8% -1.4%14.8% 0.0%-1.1%-3.7%3.2%4.7%18.3%0.0%-3.1%-0.4%4.3% -1.6%18.8% 0.1%10.2%-11.0% 2.3%8.7%17.3%0.0%-0.9%-0.2%5.1% 6.1%1.7%15.1%8.1%1.5%28.0%2.4%20.2%1.1%15.8%0.1%100.0% 3.9%5.1%0.2%8.9%0.6%29.6%7.2%42.3%0.0%2.1%0.0%100.0% Adjustedbookfactorsincorporatedistress;qualitybanksshowattractiverisk/reward Westresstestthe2013EbookvalueofChinabanksunderourcoveragebyassumingatotalpotentialNPLratioof4%-6%onaverage,similartowhatthesebanksreportedin2005.Thisismuchhigherthanthereportedaverage0.9%NPLratioin1H12andourforecastat1.1%in2013E. Wethenusethe2013EadjustedBVPStosetthetargetpricesoflistedbanks(previouslybasedon2012EreportedBVPS). Toestimatethedownsidevaluation,wealsoderivetheimpliedvaluationsoftheChinalistedbanksunderourbearcasescenario,whichassumeshigherNPLsfromoff-balancesheetitemsandLGFVloans: 1)Theoff-balancesheetguaranteesandeptanceswillincurthesameNPLformationratestothatofon-balancesheetloans.Thiswillparticularlyhaveanegativeimpactonsmallerbankswithaggressivegrowthofoff-balancesheetitems,suchasCNCB,PABandSPDB; 2)AssumingthepotentialNPLratioforLGFVloanstobearound35%,upfromaround20%inourbasecase.OurBuy-ratedbanks,whichtypicallyhavehighPPOPearningspower,strongbalancesheetandgeneralprovisionlevels,goodcustomerbase,aswellaslowoff-balancesheetitems,showattractiverisk/reward,basedon: 1)Thepotentialupsidetoour12-monthtargetpricebasedon2013EadjustedBVPSordingtoourbasecasescenariooftotalpotentialNPLratioat6%,andthemid-pointP/BderivedfromtheGSCAMELOT3-stageDDMvaluationmodel;and 高华证券投资研究 10 2012年10月11日 中国：银行 2)Thevarianceoftheimpliedvaluetothecurrentsharepriceunderourbearcase,whichisbasedon2013EadjustedBVPSandassumestotalpotentialNPLsat9%,andontheex-growthP/Bderivedfromthelong-termsustainableROE/discountrates. 图表9:Ourbuy-ratedbanksgenerallyhaveabove-peerrisk/reward,includingCMBH/IndustrialA(bothonConvictionList),ABC/ICBC/CCB/MinshengH/AChinabanks’targetpricechanges,impliedvaluationsunderourbearcase,andvaluationmultiples H-shares(HKD) ICBC(H) 1398.HK BOC(H) 3988.HK CCB(H) 0939.HK ABC(H) 1288.HK BoCom(H) 3328.HK CMB(H) 3968.HK CNCB(H) 0998.HK Minsheng(H)1988.HK CQRCB 3618.HK H-shareaverage (HKD)(HKD)(HKD)(HKD)(HKD)(HKD)(HKD)(HKD)(HKD) Ratings BuyNeutralBuyBuySellBuy*NeutralBuyBuy 10-OctPrice
1.Basecasepricetargets(basedon2013EadjustedBVPS) 12-monthPricetarget PotentialTargetupsidePB(X)on/downsideadj.BV TargetPB(X)onreported BV
2.Bearcasescenario(Basedonadj.BVPS,ex-growthP/B) Ex-growthvaluation Vs.currentshareprice Ex-growthOld12mP/BPricetarget OldtargetPB(X)onreported 12EBV ChangeinPricetarget 4.69 6.2 32% 1.46 1.38 5.3 2.96 3.5 18% 0.97 0.89 3.1 5.49 7.3 33% 1.46 1.43 6.2 3.10 4.7 52% 1.40 1.41 3.9 5.43 5.7 5% 0.90 0.83 5.1 13.82 20.6 49% 1.58 1.55 17.1 3.89 4.6 18% 0.88 0.78 3.6 6.32 9.2 46% 1.18 1.09 7.1 3.20 4.1 28% 0.93 0.90 3.9 31% 1.20 1.14 13% 1.34 5.90 5% 0.94 3.50 13% 1.32 6.80 26% 1.24 4.20 -6% 0.90 5.60 24% 1.44 20.20 -7% 0.88 4.90 12% 1.10 9.10 22% 0.93 4.30 11% 1.12 1.53 5% 1.00 0% 1.50 7% 1.50 12% 0.90 2% 1.80 2% 0.90 -6% 1.30 1% 1.00 -5% 1.10 2% A-shares
(Rmb) ICBC(A) 601398.SS(CNY)Buy 3.80 5.0 32% 1.46 1.38 4.3 BOC(A) 601988.SS(CNY)Neutral 2.73 2.9 6% 0.97 0.89 2.5 CCB(A) 601939.SS(CNY)Buy 4.06 5.9 45% 1.46 1.43 5.0 ABC(A) 601288.SS(CNY)Buy 2.48 3.8 53% 1.40 1.41 3.1 BoCom(A) 601328.SS(CNY)Neutral 4.30 4.7 9% 0.90 0.83 4.1 CMB(A) 600036.SS(CNY)Buy 10.21 16.7 64% 1.58 1.55 13.9 CNCB(A) 601998.SS(CNY)Neutral 3.69 3.7 0% 0.88 0.78 2.9 Minsheng(A)600016.SS(CNY)Buy 5.71 7.4 30% 1.18 1.09 5.8 SPDB 600000.SS(CNY)Neutral 7.44 8.8 18% 0.90 0.81 6.8 Industrial 601166.SS(CNY)Buy* 12.11 19.8 64% 1.47 1.36 15.2 PAB 000001.SZ(CNY)Neutral 13.29 14.4 8% 0.92 0.77 11.2 HuaXia 600015.SS(CNY)Sell 8.20 7.1 -13% 0.75 0.63 5.1 BONB 002142.SZ(CNY)Neutral 9.18 10.2 11% 1.26 1.20 8.2 BOBJ 601169.SS(CNY)Neutral 6.96 8.1 16% 0.89 0.77 7.2 BONJ 601009.SS(CNY)Sell 7.65 7.7 1% 0.87 0.84 6.8 CEB 601818.SS(CNY)Sell 2.68 2.7 1% 0.94 0.83 2.2 A-shareaverage 22% 1.11 1.03 Note:*denotestockisonourregionalConvictionList. 资料来源：Companydata,GaoHuaSecuritiesResearchestimates. 13% 1.34 4.80 -8% 0.94 2.80 23% 1.32 5.50 26% 1.24 3.40 -4% 0.90 4.50 36% 1.44 16.20 -21% 0.88 4.00 1% 1.10 7.40 -8% 0.85 8.70 26% 1.27 19.30 -16% 0.93 16.60 -37% 0.78 8.00 -11% 1.11 9.40 3% 0.88 8.33 -11% 0.87 7.70 -19% 0.96 2.90 -1% 1.05 1.50 4% 1.00 4% 1.50 7% 1.50 12% 0.90 4% 1.80 3% 0.90 -8% 1.30 0% 0.90 1% 1.50 3% 1.00 -13% 0.80 -11% 1.30 9% 1.10 -3% 0.90 0% 1.10 -7% 1.2 0% 高华证券投资研究 11 2012
年10月11日 中国：银行 WenoteBuy-ratedbanksincludingCMBH/IndustrialA(bothonConvictionList),ABC/ICBC/CCB/MinshengH/A,tradeevenlowerthantheirimpliedvaluationbasedonex-growthP/Bandadjusted2013EBVPSunderthebearcase.Exhibit9summarizesthevaluationandrisk/rewardinourbaseandbearcases. Moreover,ourBuy-ratedbanksalsorankedhighwithinourfundamentalscores(Exhibit10),andpossessstrongPPOPearningspower,whichwebelievecouldoffsettheaverage4.5%NPLratiorisein2013Ewithouthurtingthebook(Exhibit11). 图表10:OurfundamentalscoresforChinalistedbanksunderourcoverage 2012 ICBC CCB ABC BOC BoCom CMB CNCBMinshengCQRCBIndustrialSPDB SZDBHuaxia CEB
1.AbilitytoabsorbimpactsfromlowerNIM,risingNPL Lowloan/depositratio
1 1
1 HighSME/consumerexposure Off-balancesheet guarantee/loans(2011)
1 1
1 1
1 1
1 1 -
2 -
1 -
1 -
1 -
1 -
1 2.MitigatenegativeimpactsfromWMPs Lowloan/depositratio
1 1
1 1 Demanddeposits/totaldeposits
1 1
1 1
3.Capitalandreturnoncapital CoretierICAR
1 -
1 -
1 1
1 PPOP/RWA
1 1
1 1 Internalcapitalgeneration-RWA growth
1 1
1 1
1 1 -
1 1 -
1 1
1 1
4.Valuation ImpliedNPLformationrates thatdonotmatchbanks'risk profile
1 1
1 1 -
1 Dividendyield
1 1
1 1
1 1
1 Totalscore
7 7
7 0
1 5
0 2
5 4
0 0 -
2 -
1 Note:Wedefinescore1asbetterthansectoraverage,-1asslightlyworsethansectoraverage,and-2assignificantlyworsethansectoraverage. 资料来源：GaoHuaSecuritiesResearchestimates. BOBJ BONB BONJ 11
1 -
1 1
1 1
1 1
1 -
1 -
1 -
1 -
1 2
1 1 高华证券投资研究 12 2012年10月11日 中国：银行 图表11:2013Eearningssensitivity:webelievethe2013EPPOPforourBuy-ratednames,includingICBC,CCB,CMB(onCL),ABC,Minsheng,CQRCB/IndustrialBanks(onCL),couldabsorbanaverage4.5%NPLratio Changeby: newNPLformationrates (domestic)(as%ofbeginningloanbalance) 10bp Tippingpointstohurt2013E bookvalue (maximumNPLformationrates) Tippingpointstohurt2013E bookvalue (maximumNPLformationrates inclO/B) Creditcost(as%of endingloanbalance) 1bp Loangrowth (yoy) 1pp ICBCCCBBOCBoComCMBCNCBMinshengABCCQRCBSPDBIndustrialPABHuaXiaBONBBOBJBONJCEBFEHaverage -2.08%-2.10%-2.81%-2.46%-2.37%-2.41%-2.11%-2.41%-1.77%-2.24%-1.94%-3.09%-3.67%-2.30%-2.45%-1.90%-2.36%-1.57%-2.38% 4.57%4.49%3.35%3.33%3.97%3.90%4.45%4.47%4.97%3.47%4.75%2.98%2.59%3.85%3.72%4.71%3.96%4.90%3.97% 4.08%3.81%2.72%2.55%3.07%2.41%2.88%3.94%4.87%2.31%3.44%1.91%1.61%2.87%3.06%2.82%2.58% 3.00% -0.34%-0.34%-0.46%-0.46%-0.39%-0.39%-0.35%-0.34%-0.31%-0.44%-0.32%-0.52%-0.59%-0.40%-0.41%-0.33%-0.39%-0.31%-0.40% 0.83%0.79%0.64%1.26%1.14%1.52%1.44%1.35%1.29%1.40%1.36%1.73%2.25%2.09%1.65%1.26%1.26%0.26%1.37% ListedbankaverageH-sharesA-shares -2.4%-2.3%-2.5% 3.9%4.1%3.8% 2.9%3.2%2.6% -0.4%-0.38%-0.43% 1.4%1.1%1.6% 资料来源：GaoHuaSecuritiesResearchestimates. NIM 10bp 6.3%5.9%8.0%7.9%6.5%5.8%6.2%6.5%6.5%8.4%6.5%10.0%11.0%7.0%9.3%8.0%7.3%2.7%7.48% 7.5%6.6%8.4% Depositscosts 1bps 0.5%0.5%0.6%0.5%0.5%0.5%0.4%0.5%0.5%0.6%0.4%0.6%0.8%0.5%0.6%0.5%0.5%0.2%0.54% 0.5%0.5%0.6% Netfeee Operatingexpensesgrowth(yoy) etaxrate BusinesstaxSecurities rate yield 1pp 1pp -1pp -1pp 10bp 0.35%0.38%0.41%0.30%0.33%0.31%0.40%0.37%0.05%0.22%0.27%0.33%0.27%0.20%0.13%0.20%0.31%0.72%0.28% 0.3%0.4%0.2% -0.64%-0.65%-0.89%-0.77%-0.86%-0.75%-0.83%-0.70%-0.68%-0.65%-0.46%-1.10%-1.24%-0.76%-0.51%-0.65%-0.64%-0.50%-0.75% -0.8%-0.8%-0.8% 1.29%1.50%1.35%1.49%1.30%1.33%1.31%1.28%1.34%1.25%1.33%1.28%1.30%1.28%1.30%1.22%1.33%1.33%1.32% 1.3%1.4%1.3% 2.16%2.22%NA2.95%2.53%2.63%2.67%2.46%2.18%2.85%2.32%3.59%4.06%3.00%2.05%2.35%1.18%1.91%2.58% 2.6%2.5%2.7% 1.76%1.17%0.86%1.60%1.17%0.82%0.66%1.42%1.18%1.28%0.87%1.28%1.39%1.67%1.76%1.86%0.93%NA1.28% 1.3%1.2%1.4% Targetpricesbasedon2013EadjustedBVPS:assuming6%totalpotentialNPLratio Exhibits12and13showthedetailedcalculationoftheadjustedBVPSandour12-monthtargetpricesforH-sharebanksandA-sharebanksbyassumingtotalpotentialNPLratiosthataresimilarto2005levels: 1)TheadjustedBVPSbasedonaverage5.8%/6.3%totalpotentialNPLratiosforH-/A-sharebankswillreduce2013EBVPSbyamodestaverageof5.5%/8.9%forH-sharebanksandA-sharebanksrespectively. ThisismainlybecauseChinabankshavehighexcessNPLprovisionaveraging2.0%/1.9%oftotalloansforH-/A-sharebanks,i.e.generalprovisionafterdeducting65pplossonreportedNPLs. 高华证券投资研究 13 2012年10月11日 中国：银行 图表12:Our12-monthtargetpricesforH-sharebanksarebasedon2013EadjustedBVPSDetailedestimatesofadjustedBVPS RmbmnForecastedNPLsForecastedNPLratiosAdjusted2005NPLratios Reported2005NPLratiosAdjustmentLoansAdjustedNPLsexcludingLGFVloans LGFVloansAssumedLGFVNPLs(additional15%NPLratio) TotaladjustedNPLsTotaladjustedNPLratio ICBC(H)141,2491.4%4.7%4.7% BOC(H)107,1941.6%5.7%5.7% 10,003,548469,583 6,746,941383,642 714,000107,100 414,64562,197 576,6835.8% 445,8396.6% CCB(H)109,4471.3%3.8%3.8% 8,465,528325,305 451,25267,688 392,9934.6% ABC(H)133,5351.8%5.7%NA 7,297,864415,552 BoCom(H)42,9131.3%4.8%2.8%2.0% 3,373,184162,053 CMB(H)14,8710.69%3.6%2.6%1.0% 2,152,36076,984 CNCB(H)18,9521.0%5.1%4.1%1.0% 1,879,95296,539 Minsheng(CQRCB 17,891 2,383 1.1% 1.1% 4.3% 4.7% 1.3% 8.7% 3.0% -4.0% 1,596,272 215,878 68,272 10,111 419,685
62,953 261,75939,264 119,89217,984 186,27027,941 164,63524,695 20,3633,054 478,5056.6% 201,3166.0% 94,9684.4% 124,4806.6% 92,9675.8% 13,1666.1% AverageforHshares 1.3%4.7%4.2% 5.8% 13EexcessgeneralprovisiontocoveradditionalNPLsGeneralprovision/totalloans 185,9211.9% 107,1941.6% 154,9241.8% 232,6443.2% 59,0871.8% 45,6802.1% 33,1661.8% 28,2781.8% 5,4672.5% 2.0% Provisionneededtocover65%additionalNPLsShortfallofprovisionAfter-taxshortfallofprovision BookvalueImpacton13EBV 283,032(97,111)(72,833) 1,274,033-5.7% 220,119(112,925)(84,693) 938,165-9.0% 184,305(29,382)(22,036) 1,036,351-2.1% 224,2318,4136,310 872,7510.7% 102,962(43,876)(32,907) 416,752-7.9% 52,063(6,383)(4,788) 232,815-2.1% 68,593(35,427)(26,570) 224,466-11.8% 48,799(20,522)(15,391) 198,364-7.8% 7,009(1,542)(1,156) 34,033-3.4% -5.5% AdjustedBVPS(Rmb)Mid-pointfairP/B TargetpricePotentialupside/downside CurrentpriceAdjusted13EPB Rating 3.441.46 6.2032.2% 4.691.11 Buy 2.930.97 3.5018.2% 2.960.82 Neutral 4.031.46 7.3033.0% 5.491.10 Buy 2.711.40 4.7051.6% 3.100.93 Buy 5.160.90 5.705.0% 5.430.85 Sell 10.571.58 20.6049.1% 13.821.06 Buy* 4.230.88 4.6018.3% 3.890.74 Neutral 6.291.18 9.2045.6% 6.320.81 Buy 3.540.94 4.1028.1% 3.200.73 Buy 31.2% Note:*denotesstockisonourregionalConvictionList.PricesareasofmarketcloseonOctober10,2012. 资料来源：Companydata,GaoHuaSecuritiesResearchestimates. 高华证券投资研究 14 2012年10月11日 图表13:Our12-monthtargetpricesforA-sharebanksarealsobasedon2013EadjustedBVPSDetailedestimatesofadjustedBVPS 中国：银行 RmbmnForecastedNPLsForecastedNPLratiosAdjusted2005NPLratios Reported2005NPLratiosAdjustmentLoansAdjustedNPLsexcludingLGFVloans LGFVloansAssumedLGFVNPLs(additional15%NPLratio) TotaladjustedNPLsTotaladjustedNPLratio 13EexcessgeneralprovisiontocoveradditionalNPLsGeneralprovision/totalloans Provisionneededtocover65%additionalNPLsShortfallofprovisionAfter-taxshortfallofprovision BookvalueImpacton13EBV AdjustedBVPS(Rmb)Mid-pointfairP/B TargetpricePotentialupside/downside CurrentpriceAdjustedPB RatingOldrating ICBC(A)141,2491.4%4.7%4.7% BOC(A)107,1941.6%5.7%5.7% 10,003,548469,583 6,746,941383,642 CCB(A)109,4471.3%3.8%3.8% 8,465,528325,305 ABC(A)133,5351.8%5.7%NA 7,297,864415,552 BoCom(A)42,9131.3%4.8%2.8%2.0% 3,373,184162,053 CMB(A)14,8710.7%3.6%2.6%1.0% 2,152,36076,984 CNCB(A)18,9521.0%5.1%4.1%1.0% 1,879,95296,539 Minsheng(SPDB 17,891 17,664 1.1% 1.0% 4.3% 5.0% 1.3% 2.0% 3.0% 3.0% 1,596,2721,812,392 68,272 90,140 Industrial10,2260.77%4.3%2.3%2.0% 1,328,00357,476 PAB9,5991.1%6.4%9.4%-3.0%846,38253,746 HuaXia9,4171.2%7.0%3.0%4.0%807,01756,872 BONB1,6430.9%3.0%NA 180,8565,426 BOBJ4,0910.7%6.4%4.4%2.0%553,27635,284 BONJ1,3210.9%4.3%3.3%1.0%152,4336,627 CEB10,5660.9%5.0%2.0%3.0% 1,176,68458,815 average 1.1%4.9%3.7% 714,000107,100 414,64562,197 451,25267,688 419,68562,953 261,75939,264 119,89217,984 186,27027,941 164,63524,695 152,24122,836 115,50017,325 53,4838,022 48,3007,245 15,1922,279 46,4756,971 12,8041,921 122,85018,428 576,6835.8% 445,8396.6% 392,9934.6% 478,5056.6% 201,3166.0% 94,9684.4% 124,4806.6% 92,9675.8% 112,9766.2% 74,8015.6% 61,7697.3% 64,1177.9% 7,7044.3% 42,2557.6% 8,5485.6% 77,2426.6% 6.1% 185,9211.9% 107,1941.6% 154,9241.8% 232,6443.2% 59,0871.8% 45,6802.1% 33,1661.8% 28,2781.8% 36,5472.0% 23,8971.8% 12,1771.4% 18,8372.3% 2,3691.3% 11,1732.0% 3,2572.1% 24,9032.1% 1.9% 283,032(97,111)(72,833) 220,119(112,925)(84,693) 184,305(29,382)(22,036) 224,2318,4136,310 102,962(43,876)(32,907) 52,063(6,383)(4,788) 68,593(35,427)(26,570) 48,799(20,522)(15,391) 61,953(25,406)(19,055) 41,974(18,077)(13,557) 33,910(21,734)(16,300) 35,555(16,717)(12,538) 3,940(1,572)(1,179) 24,806(13,634)(10,225) 4,697(1,440)(1,080) 43,340(18,437)(13,828) 1,274,033-5.7% 938,165-9.0% 1,036,351-2.1% 872,7510.7% 416,752-7.9% 232,815-2.1% 224,466-11.8% 198,364-7.8% 201,850-9.4% 187,060-7.2% 96,458-16.9% 77,786-16.1% 24,425-4.8% 76,651-13.3% 27,337-4.0% 127,656-10.8% -8.0% 3.441.46 5.0031.6% 3.801.11 Buy 2.930.97 2.906.2% 2.730.93 Neutral 4.031.46 5.9045.3% 4.061.01 Buy 2.711.40 3.8053.2% 2.480.92 Buy 5.160.90 4.709.3% 4.300.83 Neutral 10.571.58 16.7063.6% 10.210.97 Buy 4.230.88 3.700.3% 3.690.87 Neutral 6.291.18 7.4029.6% 5.710.91 Buy 9.800.90 8.8018.3% 7.440.76 Neutral 13.501.47 19.8063.5% 12.110.90 Buy* 15.650.92 14.408.4% 13.290.85 Neutral 9.530.75 7.10-13.4% 8.200.86 Sell 8.061.26 10.2011.1% 9.181.14 NeutralSell 9.060.89 8.1016.4% 6.960.77 Neutral 8.840.87 7.700.7% 7.650.87 Sell 2.870.94 2.700.7% 2.680.93 SellNeutral 21.5% Note:*denotesstockisonourregionalConvictionList.PricesareasofmarketcloseonOctober10,2012.资料来源：Companydata,GaoHuaSecuritiesResearchestimates 2)Wederiveour2013EadjustedNPLratiobyadjustingthe2005NPLratioofbanksthatdonothavereportedNPLratiosin2005(e.g.ABC).ForsomesmallerbankswithlowreportedNPLratioin2005astheygrewloansrapidlyin2004/2005,wealsoadjusttheir2005NPLratiobasedontheirexposuretohighrisksectorsandthequalityoftheirclientele,aswebelievethelowreportedNPLratioscouldbeduetotherapidloangrowthin2004and2005. Themagnitudeofadjustmentof2005NPLratioforeachbankisbasedonourfundamentalscoresforbanks’loanbookintermsoftheirloanexposuretoriskiersectors,suchasindustrial/mining,wholesale/retail,LGFVs,aswellasYangtzeriverloansandSMEloans,whichwerenegativelyimpactedbyover-borrowinghigh-costinformalloans(Exhibit14). 高华证券投资研究 15 2012年10月11日 图表14:Theloanbookriskscorebasedonexposuretoriskiersectorsin1H12 中国：银行 ManufacturingWholesale& &mining retail ICBC
5 4 CCB
4 5 ABC
2 5 BOC
1 5 BoCom
4 2 CMB
4 3 CNCB
3 2 Minsheng
5 4 CQRCB
5 5 Industrial
3 4 SPDB
2 2 PAB
2 1 Hua
xia
1 1 CEB
1 3 BOBJ
5 3 BONB
1 1 BONJ
3 1 Note:1/5representshighest/lowestexposure 资料来源：Companydata,GaoHuaSecuritiesResearchestimates. LGFVs35543521223541151 YangtzRiver44441523551234511 SMEs55554231114533222 Creditriskmgmt.trackrecord55333524142211252 Totalscore 2628242217241418191914171313181510 Bearcasescenario:Ex-growthimpliedvaluationonadjustedBVPSassumingaverage9%totalpotentialNPLratioExhibit15and16showthedetailedcalculationoftheadjustedBVPSandour12-monthtargetpricesforH-sharebanksandA-sharebanksinourbearcasescenario. Ourbearcaseassumes: 1)Theoff-balancesheetguaranteesandeptanceswillincurthesameNPLformationratesasthatofon-balancesheetloans.Thiswillhaveanegativeimpactparticularlyonsmallerbankswithaggressivegrowthofoff-balancesheetitems,suchasCNCB,PABandSPDB; 2)PotentialNPLratioforLGFVloansofaround35%,upfromaround20%inourbasecase. 高华证券投资研究 16 2012年10月11日 中国：银行 图表15:OurbearcaseimpliedvaluationforH-sharebanks,basedonex-growthP/Band2013EadjustedBVPS RmbmnOff-balancesheetguarantees/eptanceNPLratiosAdditionalNPLsfromoff-balancesheetitems ICBC(H)1,199,3104.7%56,298 BOC(H)1,542,0035.7%87,681 CCB(H)1,527,5333.8%58,699 ABC(H)974,5905.7%55,495 BoCom(H)1,040,5004.8%49,987 CMB(H)630,1273.6%22,538 CNCB(H)1,153,0965.1%59,214 Minsheng(CQRCB 874,144 4,699 4.3% 4.7% 37,387 220 AverageforHshares AdditionalNPLsfromLGFVloans(30%NPLratio) 107,100 62,197 67,688 62,953 39,264 17,984 27,941 24,695 3,054 TotaladjustedNPLsTotaladjustedNPLratios 740,0817.4% 595,7168.8% 519,3806.1% 596,9538.2% 290,5678.6% 135,4906.3% 211,63411.3% 155,0499.7% 16,4407.6% 8.2% AdditionalprovisioningAdditionalimpactonbookvalue (106,208)-6% (97,420)-8% (82,151)-6% (76,991)-7% (58,013)-10% (26,339)-8% (56,650)-19% (40,353)-15% (2,128)-5% -9.4% AdjustedBVPS(Rmb)Totalimpactonbookvalue 3.21-12% 2.68-17% 3.79-8% 2.53-6% 4.57-18% 9.65-11% 3.32-31% 5.25-23% 3.36-8% -15% Adjust2013EP/BEx-growthP/BImpliedvalueImpliedupside/downside 1.181.345.2913% 0.900.943.095% 1.171.326.1712% 0.991.243.8625% 0.960.905.08-7% 1.161.4417.1124% 0.950.883.60-7% 0.981.107.1213% 0.770.933.8821% 11% Risk-reward:(upside+downside)/2 Rating 22% 11% Buy Neutral 23% Buy 38% Buy -1% Sell 36% 5% Buy*
Neutral 29% Buy 25% Buy 21.0% Off-balancesheetitemsas%totalloans(1H12) 12% 23% 18% 13% Note:*denotesstockisonourregionalConvictionList.PricesareasofmarketcloseonOctober10,2012. 31% 29% 61% 55% 2% 资料来源：Companydata,GaoHuaSecuritiesResearchestimates. 高华证券投资研究 17 2012年10月11日 图表16:OurbearcaseimpliedvaluationforA-sharebanks,basedonex-growthP/Band2013EadjustedBVPS 中国：银行 RmbmnOff-balancesheetguarantees/eptanceNPLratiosAdditionalNPLsfromoff-balancesheetitems AdditionalNPLsfromLGFVloans(30%NPLratio) TotaladjustedNPLsTotaladjustedNPLratios AdditionalprovisioningAdditionalimpactonbookvalue AdjustedBVPS(Rmb)Totalimpactonbookvalue AdjustedP/BEx-growthP/BImpliedvalueImpliedupside/downside Risk-reward:(upside+downside)/2 RatingOldrating Off-balancesheetitemsas%totalloans(1H12) ICBC(A)BOC(A)CCB(A)ABC(A)BoCom(A)CMB(A)CNCB(A)Minsheng(SPDB IndustrialPAB HuaXiaBONB BOBJ BONJ CEB 1,199,3101,542,0031,527,533974,5901,040,500630,1271,153,096874,144911,081502,297477,194490,880 61,846 118,869 102,638 633,812 4.7% 5.7% 3.8% 5.7% 4.8% 3.6% 5.1% 4.3% 5.0% 4.3% 6.4% 7.0% 3.0% 6.4% 4.3% 5.0% 56,298 87,681 58,699 55,495 49,987 22,538 59,214 37,387 45,313 21,739 30,302 34,593 1,855 7,581 4,462 31,680 average 107,100 62,197 67,688 62,953 39,264 17,984 27,941 24,695 22,836 17,325 8,022 7,245 2,279 6,971 1,921 18,428 740,081
7.4% 595,7168.8% 519,3806.1% 596,9538.2% 290,5678.6% 135,4906.3% 211,63411.3% 155,0499.7% 181,12510.0% 113,8658.6% 100,09411.8% 105,95513.1% 11,8396.5% 56,80710.3% 14,9319.8% 127,35010.8% 9.2% (106,208)-6% (97,420)-8% (82,151)-6% (76,991)-7% (58,013)-10% (26,339)-8% (56,650)-19% (40,353)-15% (44,297)-16% (25,392)-10% (24,911)-19% (27,195)-26% (2,687)-8% (9,459)-9% (4,149)-11% (32,570)-19% -12.5% 3.21-12% 2.68-17% 3.79-8% 2.53-6% 4.57-18% 9.65-11% 3.32-31% 5.25-23% 8.02-26% 12.02-17% 12.00-36% 6.55-42% 7.36-13% 8.09-23% 7.80-15% 2.26-30% -20.5% 1.181.344.2813% 1.020.942.51-8% 1.071.325.0023% 0.981.243.1326% 0.940.904.11-4% 1.061.4413.8636% 1.110.882.92-21% 1.091.105.761% 0.930.856.83-8% 1.011.2715.2126% 1.110.9311.20-16% 1.250.785.13-37% 1.251.118.17-11% 0.860.887.163% 0.980.876.78-11% 1.190.962.16-19% -0.6% 22% -1% BuyNeutral 34% Buy 40% 2% Bu
多数企业的困难时期出现在2012年历史数据表明，企业的隐含不良贷款率与GDP增速变化呈负相关。
由于我们预计2013年GDP增长的减速势头有望趋缓（不会像2012年那样从2011年的9.3%骤降至7.6%），再加之借款利率降低的影响，我们认为潜在不良率的增长应该会在2013年有所放缓。
就结构而言，消费信贷是关键超过150%的中国企业负债/GDP之比可能会导致企业贷款/投资需求在长期内保持低迷。
因此，我们认为消费信贷/房贷/消费增长是中国实现再平衡、避免重蹈日本衰退覆辙及银行股估值下行的关键所在。
*全文翻译随后提供 马宁执业证书编号:S14+86(10)6627-3063ning.ma@北京高华证券有限责任公司程博为执业证书编号:S01+86(10)6627-3095bowei.cheng@北京高华证券有限责任公司 目前已趋向企稳；买入优质股目前我们看到企业盈利和GDP增速已有所企稳，但尚无加速增长迹象。
11月领导换届后的经济政策将是决定银行股究竟是呈周期性走高还是估值继续结构性下行的关键。
我们看好拨备前营业利润、资产负债表以及业务实力强劲的优质股，包括拥有买入评级的招商银行H股/兴业银行（二者均位于亚太强力买入名单），农业银行H/A、建设银行H/A、工商银行H/A、民生银行H/A，以及重庆农村商业银行。
我们因估值因素将宁波银行评级上调至中性，并因光大银行资本充足率及基本面弱于同业而将其评级下调至卖出。
评级为买入的银行股风险回报具有吸引力我们因调整了估值基础而调整了研究范围内银行股的12个月目标价格，目前我们不再使用2012年已公布每股净资产，而是使用在总潜在不良率为6%假设情景下的2013年调整后每股净资产来计算估值。
拥有买入评级的个股估值普遍低于悲观假设下（剔除增长因素且基于9%的潜在不良率调整每股净资产价值）的隐含估值。
由于今年上半年银行业绩表现强劲，我们将2012年的税后净利润假设提高了1%，但因银行贷款议价能力降低，且假设没有大规模经济刺激方案或房地产政策调整出炉而将2013/14年税后净利润假设分别下调了6%/8%。
报告看点 1)我们在中国企业当前EBITDA利息保障倍数与历史数据以及其它国家数据之间进行了比较，以明确总潜在不良率。
2)我们评估了在不良贷款中有多少是周期性的，有多少是结构性的。
3)我们在不同的不良贷款率假设下对中国银行业的净资产状况进行了压力测试。
相关研究 中国：金融服务：中国信贷观察4：一季度疲弱，但有望反弹；杠杆上升是一个长期问题，2012年5月8日 A股上市企业的隐含不良贷款率与GDP增速变动呈负相关 14%12%10% 8%6%4%2%0% 10.4% ImpliedNPLratio(EBITDA
有关分析师的申明和其他重要信息，见信息披露附录，或请与您的投资代表联系。
北京高华证券有限责任公司 投资研究 2012年10月11日 Tableofcontents TotalpotentialNPLsmaynotbeasbadasmarketfeared;Buyqualitybanks
3 Wesee4%-6%totalpotentialNPLratioforChinabanks,notover10%assomemayfear
4 Adjustedbookfactorsincorporatedistress;qualitybanksshowattractiverisk/reward 10 Bulkofcyclicalcorporatedistressalreadyshownin12E;couldstabilize/easein2013E 19 Highcorporateleveragealong-termriskforChinabanks;consumercreditcritical 23 Fine-tune2012ENPAT,cut2013E/2014ENIM/NPATassumingnofiscalreforms 29 CEB(601818.SS,Sell):DowngradetoSellonoverdueloansurgeandcapitalconcerns 33 BONB(002142.SZ,Neutral):UpgradetoNeutralonstableassetqualityandprofitability 35 DisclosureAppendix 42 PricesinthisreportarebasedonthemarketcloseofOctober10,2012,unlessotherwisestated.图表1:ChinaH-share/A-sharebankstradeat0.9X/0.9X2013Eadjustedbookonaverage H-shares(HKD) Rating ICBC(H) 1398.HK Buy BOC(H) 3988.HK Neutral CCB(H) 0939.HK Buy ABC(H) 1288.HK Buy BoCom(H) 3328.HK Sell CMB(H) 3968.HK Buy* CNCB(H) 0998.HK Neutral Minsheng(H)1988.HK Buy CQRCB 3618.HK Buy H-shareaverage ExcludingCMBH-shares A-shares(Rmb) ICBC(A) 601398.SS Buy BOC(A) 601988.SS Neutral CCB(A) 601939.SS Buy ABC(A) 601288.SS Buy BoCom(A) 601328.SS Neutral CMB(A) 600036.SS Buy CNCB(A) 601998.SS Neutral Minsheng(A)600016.SS Buy SPDB 600000.SS Neutral Industrial 601166.SS Buy* PAB 000001.SZ Neutral Hua
Xia 600015.SS Sell BONB 002142.SZ Neutral BOBJ 601169.SS Neutral BONJ 601009.SS Sell CEB 601818.SS Sell A-share
average Bigbanksaverage Shareholdingbanksaverage CityBankAverage 10-Oct Price 4.692.965.493.105.4313.823.896.323.20 MktCap (US$bn) 21010617610339382322
4 3.802.734.062.484.3010.213.695.717.4412.1113.298.209.186.967.652.68 201115154983733262321207.0 647316 12MTarget Price 6.23.57.34.75.720.64.69.24.1 5.02.95.93.84.716.73.77.48.819.814.47.110.28.17.72.7 PotentialUpside/ downside 32%18%33%52%5%49%18%46%28% 32%6%45%53%9%64%0%30%18%64%8%-13%11%16%1%1% P/B(X) 2012E1.180.831.181.070.871.210.750.880.790.970.94 2013E1.040.751.080.930.791.040.660.750.740.860.84 1.180.941.081.050.851.100.870.980.800.950.810.801.230.740.940.980.961.060.910.97 1.040.850.990.920.770.950.770.840.690.830.710.721.080.570.830.830.840.950.790.83 Adj.P/B(X) P/E(X) P/PPOP(X) Divyld(%) EPSgrowth(%) 2013E1.110.821.100.930.851.060.740.810.730.910.89 122012E5.85.26.05.46.05.84.54.14.75.35.3 2013E5.74.85.94.95.85.74.14.14.65.15.1 2012E2013E 4.0 3.8 3.3 3.0 3.9 3.8 3.7 3.2 3.7 3.5 3.7 3.6 2.6 2.5 2.6 2.7 3.5 3.3 3.4 3.3 3.4 3.2 2012E
6.06.85.96.51.53.95.64.26.15.25.2 2013E6.17.36.07.13.34.45.65.56.75.85.8 1.110.931.010.920.830.970.870.910.760.900.850.861.140.770.870.930.910.990.880.92 5.85.95.45.35.95.35.24.54.74.75.55.77.45.25.85.3 5.55.65.26.1 5.75.55.44.95.75.24.84.54.35.05.35.47.55.05.94.8 5.35.45.06.1 4.03.73.63.63.63.43.12.92.93.24.43.34.93.14.03.93.63.73.44.0 3.83.43.53.23.53.32.93.02.73.03.33.14.83.03.93.23.43.53.13.9 6.06.06.56.62.04.34.83.82.33.00.04.42.33.92.82.83.86.33.03.0 6.16.46.57.24.44.94.85.02.74.70.04.72.34.92.83.24.46.53.83.3 2012E9.74.610.324.9 (11.1)15.16.918.120.49.89.1 9.74.610.324.9(11.1)15.16.918.18.413.319.26.710.60.720.213.410.712.410.010.5 2013E1.06.81.48.33.52.78.50.02.34.04.2 1.06.81.48.33.52.78.50.09.8(4.5)3.46.7-1.75.7-1.611.03.84.44.60.8 Note:*denotesstockisonourregionalConvictionList.Alltargetpricesareona12-monthbasis.资料来源：Companydata,GaoHuaSecuritiesResearchestimates. 高华证券投资研究 中国：银行
2 2012年10月11日 中国：银行 TotalpotentialNPLsmaynotbeasbadasmarketfeared;Buyqualitybanks Manyinvestorsareconcernedaboutthe“totalpotentialNPLratio”ofChinabanks,i.e.reportedNPLspluslongtermpotentialNPLgenerationinmanycorporatesectorswithovercapacityandfallingprofitability,suchas: 1)Cyclicalsectors,includingsteel,cementandmining.Thesesectorstendtohaveovercapacityissuesgiventheconsiderableinvestmentoverthepast10years. 2)Export-orientedsectors,includingsolarenergyandshipbuilding,whichalsofaceovercapacityissuesasglobaldemanddeclines. WebelievesomeofthesecorporateloanscouldbedowngradedtoNPLsoverthemediumterm.However,manyofthesetotalpotentialNPLsmaynotbereportedasNPLsin2012Eor2013E/2014E,giventhestilldouble-digitloangrowthinChinathathelpedpaniesintermsofliquidity,thatsomecorporatesmayremainsolventinthefirsttwoorthreeyearsofloss-making,andthattheChinagovernmentmayhelptobailoutandrestructuremanyofpanies. heless,webelievemanyinvestorsmayconsiderpaniesmerciallyunviableinthelongterm,andthushavebeendiscountingChinabanks’valuationsince2H09,pendingtheemergenceofclearsignswhereChina’sdomesticGDPgrowthandoverseasexportsrecoverandelerate. Inthisreport,weassessthefollowingissues: 1)TotalpotentialNPLsofChinabanks,iftheweaknessincorporateprofitabilitycontinues,fromthreedifferentperspectives:China’shistoricalcorporateprofitabilitytrendvs.reportedNPLs,parisonofcorporateprofitabilityvs.reportedNPLsoflistedbanksinthesecountries,andChinabanks’loanexposuretoriskysectorswithpotentiallyhighNPLformation,suchasmanufacturing/mining/wholesale/retail. 2)Cyclicalslowdownimpacts,andhowmuchcorporatedistress/assetqualityhasalreadybeenreflectedinthecurrentfinancialdistressofnon-financialcorporates,andinChinabanks’valuation. 3)Long-termhighcorporateleveragerisksandtheirimpactonChinabanks’loanpricingpower/NIM,bankde-rating,andthesolutionstosuchimbalances. Ourkeyconclusions: TotalpotentialNPLs:Chinabanks’totalpotentialNPLratiosin2012E/2013Ecouldrangebetween4%and6%basedon1H12corporatedistresslevels,andthereisnoevidencetosupportmanyinvestors’concernofover10%totalpotentialNPLratioorasystemicbankingcrisis,astheprofitabilityofChinacorporatesremainsrelativelyhealthyfromhistoricalandparisonperspectives. Cyclically,thebulkofcorporatedistressmayhavealreadyhappenedin2012E;webelievepressurein2013Ewillbelower.WealsobelieveChinacorporateimpliedNPLshavehistoricallybeennegativelycorrelatedwithGDPgrowthratechanges.AsweexpectGDPgrowthmomentumslowdowntobemoremodest,ifnotimprove,in2013Ethanin2012E(ourGlobalECSteamforecasts8.0%GDPgrowthin2013E),wheretheGDPgrowthratefellsharplyto7.6%from9.3%inFY11,coupledwiththeimpactofrecentborrowingratecuts,webelievetotalpotentialNPLgrowthratewillmoderatein2013E. Structurally,webelieveconsumercreditdevelopmentinChinaiskeytoavoidaJapan-stylerecessionandde-ratingforbanks.AhighChinacorporatedebt/GDPratioofover150%mayleadtolong-termweakcorporateloan/investmentdemandandassetqualityrisks,inourview.Therefore,webelievepoliciestoencourageconsumercredit/mortgage/consumptiongrowthsarecriticalforChinarebalancingandavoidingaJapan-stylerecession/bankderating. WestresstestChinabanks’2013EadjustedbookbasedontotalpotentialNPLs,andusethebasecase2013EadjustedBVPStovalueChinabanks.Ourbuy-ratednameshaveattractiverisk/reward,basedon: 高华证券投资研究
3 2012年10月11日 中国：银行 oPotentialupsidetoourtargetprices:Weadjustour12-monthP/B-basedtargetpriceforourChinabankscoverage,aswerolloverourvaluationbasisto2013EadjustedBVPS(previously2012EreportedBVPS),whichassumesaverage6%totalpotentialNPLsvs.ourreportedNPLratioforecastof1.1%. oDownsideriskstoourbearcaseimpliedvaluation(onex-growthP/Band2013EadjustedBVPSinthebearcase),whichassumes9%totalpotentialNPLs. WewillwatchcloselyforpotentialpolicychangesaftertheleadershipchangesinNovember: oOnthepositiveside,weexpectgovernmentministriestobemoreproactiveindealingwithnear-termcyclicalslowdownissuesandlong-termstructuralreformissues,whichwebelievecouldbenefitChinabanks’earnings/valuations,thanthecurrentpolicyinertiaduetotheingleadershipchanges. oOnthenegativeside,therecouldberisksthatthegovernmentmaycontinuepropertytighteningmeasureswhileencouragingcorporate/infrastructureinvestmentatlowerinterestrates,whichcouldfurtherincreasethecorporateleverage,imbalanceintheChineseeconomy,andlong-termNPL/NIMrisksforChinabanks,inourview. Wesee4%-6%totalpotentialNPLratioforChinabanks,notover10%assomemayfear WeusethreemethodstoestimatethetotalpotentialNPLratioforChinabanksunderourcoverage,thefirsttwoofpareChina’scurrentcorporateprofitability/stresslevelvs.historicalnumbersandvs.othercountrieswithsimilarcorporateprofitability.Subsequently,weusetheseasindictorstodetermineparablereportedNPLratioofChinabanks. Thethreemethodsyieldsimilarresults:TheChinabanks'totalpotentialNPLratiocouldrangebetween4%and6%basedon1H12corporatedistresslevels,andthereisnoevidencetosupportmarketconcernsofatotalpotentialNPLratioofover10%orasystemicbankingcrisis. ThisisalsolowerthanthecurrentsharepricesimpliedaverageNPLratioforH-sharelistedbanksof6.1%(Exhibit2),suggestingthatcurrentvaluationsmayhavealreadyfactoredinthecorporatedistress,partlycausedbythesignificantslowdowninGDPfrom9.3%in2011to7.8%in1H12. 高华证券投资研究
4 2012年10月11日 图表2:H-/A-sharelistedbanks’currentsharepriceimpliedNPLratiosare6.1%/5.4%onaverageTotalimpliedNPLratiosfromChinabanks’currentvaluations 12ENPLratioFormationcoveredbygeneralprovisionImpliednewformation 9%8.0% 8% 8.1% 8.1% 7% 6.0%5.7% 6% 5.4% 5% 6.2%5.7% 5.0%4.9% 6.0%6.0%5.1% 5.9%6.0% 5.1% 5.2% 5.5% 4.6% 4.6%4.7% 5.8%5.1%5.3% 4% 3.5% 3% 2% 1% 0% 中国：银行 ICBC(H)BOC(H)CCB(H)ABC(H)BoCom(H)CMB(H)CNCB(H)Minsheng(H)CQRCBICBC(A)BOC(A)CCB(A)ABC(A)BoCom(A)CMB(A)CNCB(A)Minsheng(A) SPDBIndustrialBank PABHuaXia BONBBOBJBONJ CEB 高华证券投资研究 资料来源：Companydata,GaoHuaSecuritiesResearchestimates. 1)ComparingEBITDAinterestcoveroflistedcorporatesandunlistedpaniesinChinafromahistoricalperspective:1H12seemstomirror2004/2005,whichreportedNPLratioof4.4%onaverageforChinabanksOurupdatedbottom-upEBITDAinterestcoverandimpliedNPLratioanalysisof1,785A-sharelistednon-financialcorporatesin1H12showthattheimpliedNPLratioshotupto10.8%vs.5.7%in2011,duetorevenuegrowthslowdown,marginpressure,worseningcashcycle,aswellasrisingdebt/equity(D/E)andfundingcosts(seeExhibit3forsummaryandAppendixfordetails).WedefineimpliedNPLratioasthedebtoflistedcorporateswithEBITDAlessthaninterestexpenseasapercentageofthetotaldebtoflistedcorporates.Webelievetheprofitabilityoflistedcorporatesandbanks’NPLsin2012couldbesimilartothosein2004and2005,because:1)In2005,theA-sharelistedcorporateshadsimilarimpliedNPLratioof10.4%vs.10.8%in1H12(Exhibit3);2)TheEBITDAinterestcoverofunlistedChinapanieswithtotalrevenueas179%ofGDPin2011was5.1Xin1H12,vs.5.1Xin2004and5.4Xin2005(Exhibit4);and
5 2012年10月11日 中国：银行 3)Therewerebankloansurgesin2003(up23%yoy)andsubsequentcreditandpropertytighteningin2004/1H05,similartoloansurgesin2009andtighteningfrom2H10throughout1H12. 图表3:ImpliedNPLratiobasedonEBITDAinterestcoveranalysisof1,785A-sharelistedcorporatesroseto10.8%in1H12(from5.7%in2011),similarto2005’slevelof10.4%ImpliedNPLratioanalysisbasedonEBITDAinterestcoverofChinalistednon-financialcorporates 2002 2003 2004 2005 Fullyear2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Semi-annual 1H11 2H11 1H12 No.paniessurveyed 1,113 1,159 1,435 1,435 1,434 1,423 1,575 1,790 1,789 1,785 1,789 1,785 1,785 Implied
NPLratio(EBITDA
5 4.3 43.13.23.6 32.02
1 0 资料来源：CEIC,GaoHuaSecuritiesResearch. 高华证券投资研究
6 2012年10月11日 中国：银行 Exhibit5showsthatin2004and2005,ChinabankshaveaveragereportedNPLratiosof5.3%and3.5%respectively,averaging4.4%forthetwoyears.Webelievethis4.4%averagecouldbeamoreuratereflectionoftotalreportedNPLsduringthe2004/2005slowdown,asitreducestheimpactfromaveragec.20%yoyloangrowthforChinabanksespeciallythesmalleronesin2005. Webelievethetrendfromthisbottom-upA-shareEBITDAinterestcoverstudyhasbeenconsistentwiththedistressofthecorporatesectorsthatwehavemonitoredsince2003,althoughtherearemanycaveatsincluding: 1)Thestudy’ssamplesizeissmall.However,itrepresentsthestrongersubgroupofChinacorporates,withthesubjectcorporates’salesrevenueinFY11amountingtoabout38%ofGDP; 2)thestudyonlyconsidersthecurrentEBITDAinterestcoverofcorporates,anddoesnotconsidercorporates’otherloanrepaymentsources,suchascash,freefundsandrealassetssales,whilebanksusuallyconsiderthesefactorsinclassifyingNPLs;and 3)thesectordistributionforA-sharescouldbemoreskewedtocyclicalsectorssuchasmaterialsandmining,whichountfor20%ofthetotaldebtoflistedcorporates(Exhibit8).ThismaydifferfromtheoverallsectordistributionofChinabankloans.Forinstance,weestimatemining/moditysectorscouldountforonly8%ofICBC’sloanbookbasedonICBC’sloansectordisclosure. 图表5:ComparingimpliedNPLratiooflistedcorporatesvs.reportedNPLratiooflistedbanks:ThecurrentsituationinChinaseemstomirrorthatin2005(NPLratioof3.5%),HKin2002(NPLratioof3.2%),Singaporein1997(NPLratioof3.6%)andTaiwanin2000(NPLratioof5.8%) ImpliedNPLratio(%) 19971998 China 10.6 15.8 HK 5.5 17.8 India(listed) Indiamanufacturingandservices(unlisted) Korea Japan 13.5 Singapore 11.3 46.9 Taiwan 5.0 14.0 AveragereportedNPLratioso ratiosoflistedbanks(%) ChinaHKIndia(listedbanks)KoreaJapanSingaporeTaiwan 1997 0.714.3 0.03.60.0 1998 4.315.5 0.010.3 0.0 Averagecreditcosts oflistedbanks(bp) ChinaHKIndiaKoreaJapanSingaporeTaiwan 19971998 46149144304137 133128269351255 1999 11.220.0 19.19.69.8 1999 19.59.59.8 7.112.6 0.0 1999 189171385165131 2000 7.814.6 5.38.212.5 2000 13.86.89.78.16.29.35.8 2000 889512231014811 2001 10.719.4 4.517.222.4 2001 9.64.55.53.38.28.412.3 2001 62892023022106994 2002 8.112.4 6.29.417.3 2002 9.83.24.82.56.97.94.9 2002 95107176270174 60439 2003 9.414.3 4.18.36.7 2003 9.52.74.22.24.66.83.5 2003 11066 182229 8353207 2004 7.26.6 10.9 3.37.69.7 2004 5.31.74.01.79.15.12.7 2004 969 51178 6718129 2005 10.43.0 10.0 3.56.09.1 2005 3.51.12.31.02.13.91.6 2005 751588688920302 2006 8.32.712.95.72.81.53.77.5 2006 2.90.82.00.71.92.91.8 2006 7618121571718234 2007 5.84.710.16.52.31.41.43.7 2007 2.10.62.00.71.81.51.6 2007 692912751241297 2008 12.58.87.0 16.43.70.83.7 15.6 2008 1.50.92.31.32.01.71.4 2008 11756 117103 375094 2009 5.25.78.44.412.23.819.512.2 2009 1.11.02.21.43.52.31.1 2009 3966140113647965 2010 2.45.08.15.85.81.80.15.8 2010 1.00.71.81.73.31.60.6 2010 4225103120433828 2011 5.76.4 7.68.7 8.7 2011 0.80.91.91.43.11.20.4 2011 50228788133022 1H1210.8 1H120.92 1H1256 资料来源：Companydata,GoldmanSachsResearch,GaoHuaSecuritiesResearch. 高华证券投资研究
7 2012年10月11日 中国：银行 2)parison:Chinabanks’impliedNPLratiomayrangebetween3.2%and5.8%;ChinahashigherEBITDAinterestcoverthanIndiaandBrazil Exhibitparesthebottom-upimpliedNPLratiobasedonEBITDAinterestcoverforthelistednon-financialcorporatesinvariousAsiancountriesandwefoundthatHongKongin2002,Singaporein1997,Indiain2004andTaiwanin2000hadsimilarimpliedNPLratiosof12.4%,11.3%,10.9%and12.5%respectively,whicharemodestlyhigherthanChinalistedcorporates’10.8%in1H12,butstillwithinouranalysisrangeifweassumeacontinuedmodestGDP/corporateearningsslowdown. Duringtheseperiods,thelistedbanks’averageNPLratioswere3.2%,3.6%,4.0%and5.8%inHK,Singapore,IndiaandTaiwan. Moreover,wenoteChina’slistednon-financials’averageEBITDAinterestcoverhasbeenhigherthanIndiaandBrazil’slistednonfinancials’EBITDAinterestcover,partlyasChina’sborrowingcostshavebeenmuchlowerthanthoseofthetwocountries(Exhibit6).Indialistedbanks,whichinvestorshaverelativelylessconcernonNPLclassificationissue,haveaverageNPLratioforlistedbanksof1.9%in2011(2.9%grossNPLratioincludingoverdueloans)vs.Chinalistedbanks’averageof0.8%.Brazillistedbankshavea5.8%90daysoverdueloansratioonaverage. TheEBITDAinterestcoverageoflistedandunlistedcorporatesdatainChinaandIndia,whichisbasedonover410,000paniesinChinaandIndia’smanufacturingandservicesector,showsthatChinahashighercorporateaverageEBITDAinterestcoverthanIndia. 图表6:ChinalistedcorporateshavehigherhistoricalEBITDAinterestcoverthanIndiaandBrazil,partlyduetolowerinterestratesinthecountryEBITDAinterestparisonoflistedcorporates EBITDAerstcoverage(x) 199719981999 China(listed) 5.4 3.5 4.8 Chinaindustrials(unlisted) 2.0 HK 4.6 2.5 2.5 India(listedcorporate) Indiamanufacturingandservices(unlisted) Brazil Japan 6.2 5.5 6.5 Korea 1.85 1.3 1.4 Singapore 7.0 4.5 5.9 Taiwan 8.5 6.1 7.5 US 7.63
7.187.47 2000 8.43.13.2 8.32.37.38.26.87 2001 7.93.22.9 7.52.54.65.75.76 2002 7.93.63.8 2.88.85.05.79.26.23 2003 9.14.33.7 2.910.4 7.16.815.26.91 2004 10.25.16.1 5.63.311.211.39.322.18.22 2005 9.15.49.4 6.14.713.811.39.117.98.55 2006 9.05.67.26.67.05.912.810.48.516.58.63 2007 12.65.97.68.25.98.2 11.811.2 9.918.39.23 2008 7.44.87.97.63.57.88.46.711.212.19.53 2009 10.25.68.77.34.35.4 10.57.54.56.1 8.84 2010 12.16.8 11.79.24.46.7 11.610.0 7.48.010.87 2011 10.06.7 11.1 3.06.312.18.3 7.812.11 1H127.05.1 4.5 12.21 资料来源：NBS,Wind,CEIC,Datastream,Capitaline,Securitiesfilings,FinancialSupervisoryServiceviaQuantiwise,TEJ,GoldmanSachsResearch,GaoHuaSecuritiesResearch. GiventherelativelyhealthiercorporateEBITDAinterestcoverinChina,despitesomedeteriorationin1H12partlyduetothecyclicalmacroslowdown,wefortablewithourestimateof4%-6%totalpotentialNPLratiofortheChinabanksunderourcoverage. 3)Bottom-uploanexposurebreakdownofChinabanks:Stresstestsuggestsaverage5.2%totalpotentialNPLratio 高华证券投资研究
8 2012年10月11日 中国：银行 ordingtoourbottom-upEBITDAinterestcover/impliedNPLstudyofA-sharelistednon-financialcorporates,andChinabanks’indicationonNPLsectordistribution,webelievethedeteriorationofcorporateassetqualityhappensmostlyinindustrial,mining,aswellaswholesaleandpanies(classifiedunderconsumerstaplesinExhibit8). UsingconservativeassumptionsonthetotalpotentialNPLratiofortheseloanexposureperbelow,ifweassumetheweakprofitabilityofthesesectorseendemic,weestimateanadditional4.5%potentialNPLratioforlistedbanks,ofthereported0.9ppNPLratioin1H12.ThissuggeststotalpotentialNPLratioofaround5.2%. Industrialandpanies:10%NPLratiovs.averagereported1.3%NPLratiocurrently. Localgovernmentfundingvehicles(LGFV):15%NPLratiovs.reportedNPLratioforthissegmentrangingfrom5bpsto30bpscurrently.Mostbanksreportedonly5%to15%oftotalLGFVloansthatcouldnotbeadequatelycoveredbytheprojects’operatingcashflow,loancollaterals/guarantees,etc,andneedlocalgovernmentfiscalsubsidiestostayafloat.Our15%NPLratioassumptionisbasedonadistressedsituationwheresomelocalgovernmentmayfacesolvencyissueswithoutthecentralgovernment’shelp. Wholesaleandretail,includingsteeltradersandmoditytraders:weassume10%NPLratiovs.averagereported1.6%NPLratiocurrently. 图表7:Listedbanks’exposuretoriskysectorsandamoreconservativeNPLratioforecastspointtoanaverage5.2%NPLratio 1H12As%oftotalloansManufacturing&miningWholesalesandretailsLGFVs ICBCCCBABCBOCBoComCMBCNCBMinshengCQRCBIndustrialSPDBPABHuaxiaCEBBOBJBONBBONJAverage 15%8%8% 19%4%6% 24%7%7% 27%7%8% 20%13% 9% 20%11% 6% 21%12%11% 16%8% 12% 16%3% 12% 23%10%10% 24%13% 9% 23%18% 6% 31%15% 7% 25%12%12% 18%11%13% 25%15%13% 21%14%13% 22%11%10% AddingpotentialNPLratiosofthefollowingthreeriskysectors'potetnialNPLs:1)manufacturingandminingNPLratiosto10%;2)wholesale/retailersto10%;and3)LGFVsto15% Manufacturing&mining 1.2%1.9%2.4%2.7%1.7%2.0%2.1% 1.4% 1.6% 2.3%2.4%2.0%3.1%2.5%1.6%2.1%1.8% LGFVs 1.2%0.9%1.0%1.2%1.3%0.9%1.7% 1.8% 1.8% 1.6%1.3%1.0%1.0%1.8%2.0%2.0%2.0% Wholesalesandretails 0.6%0.4%0.7%0.7%1.1%1.1%1.2% 0.7% 0.3% 1.0%1.3%1.5%1.5%1.2%0.9%1.3%1.1% AdditionalNPLratios 3.0%3.3%4.1%4.5%4.1%3.9%5.0% 3.8% 3.8% 4.8%5.0%4.5%5.6%5.5%4.5%5.4%4.9% TotalpotentialNPLratios 3.9%4.3%5.5%5.4%4.9%4.4%5.6% 4.5% 5.0% 5.2%5.5%5.2%6.4%6.1%5.0%6.1%5.7% Memo:1H12reportedNPLratioforeachsector Manufacturing&mining 1.8%2.1% Wholesalesandretails 2.9%3.8% Othercorporateloans 0.4%0.7% Consumer 0.6%0.3% TotalNPLratios 0.9%1.0% 2.0%2.4%1.2%0.8%1.4% 1.5%1.5%0.7%0.6%0.9% NANANANA0.8% 0.9%1.0%0.4%0.4%0.6% 1.0%1.1%0.4%0.4%0.6% NANANA0.5%0.7% 0.7%0.8%1.1%1.7%1.2% 1.2%1.0% NA0.4%0.4% 0.7%0.9%0.5%0.3%0.5% NANANA0.3%0.7% 1.4%1.2%0.4%0.5%0.8% 1.4%1.2% NANA0.6% NANANANA0.5% NANANANA0.7% NANANANA0.8% 2.0%1.4%1.0%4.5%5.2% 1.3%1.6% 资料来源：Companydata,GaoHuaSecuritiesResearchestimates. 高华证券投资研究
9 2012年10月11日 中国：银行 图表8:OurA-shareimpliedNPLstudyshowssignificantdeteriorationforindustrials,materialsandconsumerstaplesin1H12,butpropertysectorimprovedTheimpliedNPLratioofA-sharelistedcorporatesbasedonEBITDAinterestcover 2005 2006 2007 ImpliedNPLsratiobysector 2008 2009 2010 2011 1H11 1H12 YoY(%)HoH(%) %oftotalDebt%oftotalNPL 1H12 1H12 ConsumerDiscretionaryConsumerStaplesEnergyProperty/realestateHealthCareIndustrialsInformationTechnologyMaterialsmunicationServicesUtilitiesOtherTotal 23.1%24.8%1.0%12.7%18.9%8.2%53.7%6.1%0.0%1.1%61.6%10.4% 18.0%16.9%1.7%14.5%19.3%7.3%41.3%5.4%0.0%0.9%41.5%8.3% 11.4%12.7%0.2%5.1%13.3%4.3%21.2%5.2%0.0%1.8%36.2%5.1% 资料来源：Wind,GaoHuaSecuritiesResearch. 24.9%22.0%0.6%1.6%8.6%20.8%16.8%11.5%0.0%12.7%60.2%12.5% 6.6%10.9%0.8%1.1%12.9%10.4%19.5%4.3%0.0%1.8%30.7%5.2% 5.2%14.9%0.3%0.5%5.0%1.5%21.6%3.0%0.0%1.5%3.9%2.4% 8.6%14.4%0.1%1.7%15.6%9.1%23.4%5.3%0.0%2.4%1.3%5.7% 8.3%18.4%0.2%13.1%8.3%8.3%27.4%4.3%0.0%4.5%1.5%6.5% 7.0%33.2% 0.2%11.9%4.6% 11.5%32.1%22.6%0.0%1.5%1.1%10.8% -1.4%14.8% 0.0%-1.1%-3.7%3.2%4.7%18.3%0.0%-3.1%-0.4%4.3% -1.6%18.8% 0.1%10.2%-11.0% 2.3%8.7%17.3%0.0%-0.9%-0.2%5.1% 6.1%1.7%15.1%8.1%1.5%28.0%2.4%20.2%1.1%15.8%0.1%100.0% 3.9%5.1%0.2%8.9%0.6%29.6%7.2%42.3%0.0%2.1%0.0%100.0% Adjustedbookfactorsincorporatedistress;qualitybanksshowattractiverisk/reward Westresstestthe2013EbookvalueofChinabanksunderourcoveragebyassumingatotalpotentialNPLratioof4%-6%onaverage,similartowhatthesebanksreportedin2005.Thisismuchhigherthanthereportedaverage0.9%NPLratioin1H12andourforecastat1.1%in2013E. Wethenusethe2013EadjustedBVPStosetthetargetpricesoflistedbanks(previouslybasedon2012EreportedBVPS). Toestimatethedownsidevaluation,wealsoderivetheimpliedvaluationsoftheChinalistedbanksunderourbearcasescenario,whichassumeshigherNPLsfromoff-balancesheetitemsandLGFVloans: 1)Theoff-balancesheetguaranteesandeptanceswillincurthesameNPLformationratestothatofon-balancesheetloans.Thiswillparticularlyhaveanegativeimpactonsmallerbankswithaggressivegrowthofoff-balancesheetitems,suchasCNCB,PABandSPDB; 2)AssumingthepotentialNPLratioforLGFVloanstobearound35%,upfromaround20%inourbasecase.OurBuy-ratedbanks,whichtypicallyhavehighPPOPearningspower,strongbalancesheetandgeneralprovisionlevels,goodcustomerbase,aswellaslowoff-balancesheetitems,showattractiverisk/reward,basedon: 1)Thepotentialupsidetoour12-monthtargetpricebasedon2013EadjustedBVPSordingtoourbasecasescenariooftotalpotentialNPLratioat6%,andthemid-pointP/BderivedfromtheGSCAMELOT3-stageDDMvaluationmodel;and 高华证券投资研究 10 2012年10月11日 中国：银行 2)Thevarianceoftheimpliedvaluetothecurrentsharepriceunderourbearcase,whichisbasedon2013EadjustedBVPSandassumestotalpotentialNPLsat9%,andontheex-growthP/Bderivedfromthelong-termsustainableROE/discountrates. 图表9:Ourbuy-ratedbanksgenerallyhaveabove-peerrisk/reward,includingCMBH/IndustrialA(bothonConvictionList),ABC/ICBC/CCB/MinshengH/AChinabanks’targetpricechanges,impliedvaluationsunderourbearcase,andvaluationmultiples H-shares(HKD) ICBC(H) 1398.HK BOC(H) 3988.HK CCB(H) 0939.HK ABC(H) 1288.HK BoCom(H) 3328.HK CMB(H) 3968.HK CNCB(H) 0998.HK Minsheng(H)1988.HK CQRCB 3618.HK H-shareaverage (HKD)(HKD)(HKD)(HKD)(HKD)(HKD)(HKD)(HKD)(HKD) Ratings BuyNeutralBuyBuySellBuy*NeutralBuyBuy 10-OctPrice
1.Basecasepricetargets(basedon2013EadjustedBVPS) 12-monthPricetarget PotentialTargetupsidePB(X)on/downsideadj.BV TargetPB(X)onreported BV
2.Bearcasescenario(Basedonadj.BVPS,ex-growthP/B) Ex-growthvaluation Vs.currentshareprice Ex-growthOld12mP/BPricetarget OldtargetPB(X)onreported 12EBV ChangeinPricetarget 4.69 6.2 32% 1.46 1.38 5.3 2.96 3.5 18% 0.97 0.89 3.1 5.49 7.3 33% 1.46 1.43 6.2 3.10 4.7 52% 1.40 1.41 3.9 5.43 5.7 5% 0.90 0.83 5.1 13.82 20.6 49% 1.58 1.55 17.1 3.89 4.6 18% 0.88 0.78 3.6 6.32 9.2 46% 1.18 1.09 7.1 3.20 4.1 28% 0.93 0.90 3.9 31% 1.20 1.14 13% 1.34 5.90 5% 0.94 3.50 13% 1.32 6.80 26% 1.24 4.20 -6% 0.90 5.60 24% 1.44 20.20 -7% 0.88 4.90 12% 1.10 9.10 22% 0.93 4.30 11% 1.12 1.53 5% 1.00 0% 1.50 7% 1.50 12% 0.90 2% 1.80 2% 0.90 -6% 1.30 1% 1.00 -5% 1.10 2% A-shares
(Rmb) ICBC(A) 601398.SS(CNY)Buy 3.80 5.0 32% 1.46 1.38 4.3 BOC(A) 601988.SS(CNY)Neutral 2.73 2.9 6% 0.97 0.89 2.5 CCB(A) 601939.SS(CNY)Buy 4.06 5.9 45% 1.46 1.43 5.0 ABC(A) 601288.SS(CNY)Buy 2.48 3.8 53% 1.40 1.41 3.1 BoCom(A) 601328.SS(CNY)Neutral 4.30 4.7 9% 0.90 0.83 4.1 CMB(A) 600036.SS(CNY)Buy 10.21 16.7 64% 1.58 1.55 13.9 CNCB(A) 601998.SS(CNY)Neutral 3.69 3.7 0% 0.88 0.78 2.9 Minsheng(A)600016.SS(CNY)Buy 5.71 7.4 30% 1.18 1.09 5.8 SPDB 600000.SS(CNY)Neutral 7.44 8.8 18% 0.90 0.81 6.8 Industrial 601166.SS(CNY)Buy* 12.11 19.8 64% 1.47 1.36 15.2 PAB 000001.SZ(CNY)Neutral 13.29 14.4 8% 0.92 0.77 11.2 HuaXia 600015.SS(CNY)Sell 8.20 7.1 -13% 0.75 0.63 5.1 BONB 002142.SZ(CNY)Neutral 9.18 10.2 11% 1.26 1.20 8.2 BOBJ 601169.SS(CNY)Neutral 6.96 8.1 16% 0.89 0.77 7.2 BONJ 601009.SS(CNY)Sell 7.65 7.7 1% 0.87 0.84 6.8 CEB 601818.SS(CNY)Sell 2.68 2.7 1% 0.94 0.83 2.2 A-shareaverage 22% 1.11 1.03 Note:*denotestockisonourregionalConvictionList. 资料来源：Companydata,GaoHuaSecuritiesResearchestimates. 13% 1.34 4.80 -8% 0.94 2.80 23% 1.32 5.50 26% 1.24 3.40 -4% 0.90 4.50 36% 1.44 16.20 -21% 0.88 4.00 1% 1.10 7.40 -8% 0.85 8.70 26% 1.27 19.30 -16% 0.93 16.60 -37% 0.78 8.00 -11% 1.11 9.40 3% 0.88 8.33 -11% 0.87 7.70 -19% 0.96 2.90 -1% 1.05 1.50 4% 1.00 4% 1.50 7% 1.50 12% 0.90 4% 1.80 3% 0.90 -8% 1.30 0% 0.90 1% 1.50 3% 1.00 -13% 0.80 -11% 1.30 9% 1.10 -3% 0.90 0% 1.10 -7% 1.2 0% 高华证券投资研究 11 2012
年10月11日 中国：银行 WenoteBuy-ratedbanksincludingCMBH/IndustrialA(bothonConvictionList),ABC/ICBC/CCB/MinshengH/A,tradeevenlowerthantheirimpliedvaluationbasedonex-growthP/Bandadjusted2013EBVPSunderthebearcase.Exhibit9summarizesthevaluationandrisk/rewardinourbaseandbearcases. Moreover,ourBuy-ratedbanksalsorankedhighwithinourfundamentalscores(Exhibit10),andpossessstrongPPOPearningspower,whichwebelievecouldoffsettheaverage4.5%NPLratiorisein2013Ewithouthurtingthebook(Exhibit11). 图表10:OurfundamentalscoresforChinalistedbanksunderourcoverage 2012 ICBC CCB ABC BOC BoCom CMB CNCBMinshengCQRCBIndustrialSPDB SZDBHuaxia CEB
1.AbilitytoabsorbimpactsfromlowerNIM,risingNPL Lowloan/depositratio
1 1
1 HighSME/consumerexposure Off-balancesheet guarantee/loans(2011)
1 1
1 1
1 1
1 1 -
2 -
1 -
1 -
1 -
1 -
1 2.MitigatenegativeimpactsfromWMPs Lowloan/depositratio
1 1
1 1 Demanddeposits/totaldeposits
1 1
1 1
3.Capitalandreturnoncapital CoretierICAR
1 -
1 -
1 1
1 PPOP/RWA
1 1
1 1 Internalcapitalgeneration-RWA growth
1 1
1 1
1 1 -
1 1 -
1 1
1 1
4.Valuation ImpliedNPLformationrates thatdonotmatchbanks'risk profile
1 1
1 1 -
1 Dividendyield
1 1
1 1
1 1
1 Totalscore
7 7
7 0
1 5
0 2
5 4
0 0 -
2 -
1 Note:Wedefinescore1asbetterthansectoraverage,-1asslightlyworsethansectoraverage,and-2assignificantlyworsethansectoraverage. 资料来源：GaoHuaSecuritiesResearchestimates. BOBJ BONB BONJ 11
1 -
1 1
1 1
1 1
1 -
1 -
1 -
1 -
1 2
1 1 高华证券投资研究 12 2012年10月11日 中国：银行 图表11:2013Eearningssensitivity:webelievethe2013EPPOPforourBuy-ratednames,includingICBC,CCB,CMB(onCL),ABC,Minsheng,CQRCB/IndustrialBanks(onCL),couldabsorbanaverage4.5%NPLratio Changeby: newNPLformationrates (domestic)(as%ofbeginningloanbalance) 10bp Tippingpointstohurt2013E bookvalue (maximumNPLformationrates) Tippingpointstohurt2013E bookvalue (maximumNPLformationrates inclO/B) Creditcost(as%of endingloanbalance) 1bp Loangrowth (yoy) 1pp ICBCCCBBOCBoComCMBCNCBMinshengABCCQRCBSPDBIndustrialPABHuaXiaBONBBOBJBONJCEBFEHaverage -2.08%-2.10%-2.81%-2.46%-2.37%-2.41%-2.11%-2.41%-1.77%-2.24%-1.94%-3.09%-3.67%-2.30%-2.45%-1.90%-2.36%-1.57%-2.38% 4.57%4.49%3.35%3.33%3.97%3.90%4.45%4.47%4.97%3.47%4.75%2.98%2.59%3.85%3.72%4.71%3.96%4.90%3.97% 4.08%3.81%2.72%2.55%3.07%2.41%2.88%3.94%4.87%2.31%3.44%1.91%1.61%2.87%3.06%2.82%2.58% 3.00% -0.34%-0.34%-0.46%-0.46%-0.39%-0.39%-0.35%-0.34%-0.31%-0.44%-0.32%-0.52%-0.59%-0.40%-0.41%-0.33%-0.39%-0.31%-0.40% 0.83%0.79%0.64%1.26%1.14%1.52%1.44%1.35%1.29%1.40%1.36%1.73%2.25%2.09%1.65%1.26%1.26%0.26%1.37% ListedbankaverageH-sharesA-shares -2.4%-2.3%-2.5% 3.9%4.1%3.8% 2.9%3.2%2.6% -0.4%-0.38%-0.43% 1.4%1.1%1.6% 资料来源：GaoHuaSecuritiesResearchestimates. NIM 10bp 6.3%5.9%8.0%7.9%6.5%5.8%6.2%6.5%6.5%8.4%6.5%10.0%11.0%7.0%9.3%8.0%7.3%2.7%7.48% 7.5%6.6%8.4% Depositscosts 1bps 0.5%0.5%0.6%0.5%0.5%0.5%0.4%0.5%0.5%0.6%0.4%0.6%0.8%0.5%0.6%0.5%0.5%0.2%0.54% 0.5%0.5%0.6% Netfeee Operatingexpensesgrowth(yoy) etaxrate BusinesstaxSecurities rate yield 1pp 1pp -1pp -1pp 10bp 0.35%0.38%0.41%0.30%0.33%0.31%0.40%0.37%0.05%0.22%0.27%0.33%0.27%0.20%0.13%0.20%0.31%0.72%0.28% 0.3%0.4%0.2% -0.64%-0.65%-0.89%-0.77%-0.86%-0.75%-0.83%-0.70%-0.68%-0.65%-0.46%-1.10%-1.24%-0.76%-0.51%-0.65%-0.64%-0.50%-0.75% -0.8%-0.8%-0.8% 1.29%1.50%1.35%1.49%1.30%1.33%1.31%1.28%1.34%1.25%1.33%1.28%1.30%1.28%1.30%1.22%1.33%1.33%1.32% 1.3%1.4%1.3% 2.16%2.22%NA2.95%2.53%2.63%2.67%2.46%2.18%2.85%2.32%3.59%4.06%3.00%2.05%2.35%1.18%1.91%2.58% 2.6%2.5%2.7% 1.76%1.17%0.86%1.60%1.17%0.82%0.66%1.42%1.18%1.28%0.87%1.28%1.39%1.67%1.76%1.86%0.93%NA1.28% 1.3%1.2%1.4% Targetpricesbasedon2013EadjustedBVPS:assuming6%totalpotentialNPLratio Exhibits12and13showthedetailedcalculationoftheadjustedBVPSandour12-monthtargetpricesforH-sharebanksandA-sharebanksbyassumingtotalpotentialNPLratiosthataresimilarto2005levels: 1)TheadjustedBVPSbasedonaverage5.8%/6.3%totalpotentialNPLratiosforH-/A-sharebankswillreduce2013EBVPSbyamodestaverageof5.5%/8.9%forH-sharebanksandA-sharebanksrespectively. ThisismainlybecauseChinabankshavehighexcessNPLprovisionaveraging2.0%/1.9%oftotalloansforH-/A-sharebanks,i.e.generalprovisionafterdeducting65pplossonreportedNPLs. 高华证券投资研究 13 2012年10月11日 中国：银行 图表12:Our12-monthtargetpricesforH-sharebanksarebasedon2013EadjustedBVPSDetailedestimatesofadjustedBVPS RmbmnForecastedNPLsForecastedNPLratiosAdjusted2005NPLratios Reported2005NPLratiosAdjustmentLoansAdjustedNPLsexcludingLGFVloans LGFVloansAssumedLGFVNPLs(additional15%NPLratio) TotaladjustedNPLsTotaladjustedNPLratio ICBC(H)141,2491.4%4.7%4.7% BOC(H)107,1941.6%5.7%5.7% 10,003,548469,583 6,746,941383,642 714,000107,100 414,64562,197 576,6835.8% 445,8396.6% CCB(H)109,4471.3%3.8%3.8% 8,465,528325,305 451,25267,688 392,9934.6% ABC(H)133,5351.8%5.7%NA 7,297,864415,552 BoCom(H)42,9131.3%4.8%2.8%2.0% 3,373,184162,053 CMB(H)14,8710.69%3.6%2.6%1.0% 2,152,36076,984 CNCB(H)18,9521.0%5.1%4.1%1.0% 1,879,95296,539 Minsheng(CQRCB 17,891 2,383 1.1% 1.1% 4.3% 4.7% 1.3% 8.7% 3.0% -4.0% 1,596,272 215,878 68,272 10,111 419,685
62,953 261,75939,264 119,89217,984 186,27027,941 164,63524,695 20,3633,054 478,5056.6% 201,3166.0% 94,9684.4% 124,4806.6% 92,9675.8% 13,1666.1% AverageforHshares 1.3%4.7%4.2% 5.8% 13EexcessgeneralprovisiontocoveradditionalNPLsGeneralprovision/totalloans 185,9211.9% 107,1941.6% 154,9241.8% 232,6443.2% 59,0871.8% 45,6802.1% 33,1661.8% 28,2781.8% 5,4672.5% 2.0% Provisionneededtocover65%additionalNPLsShortfallofprovisionAfter-taxshortfallofprovision BookvalueImpacton13EBV 283,032(97,111)(72,833) 1,274,033-5.7% 220,119(112,925)(84,693) 938,165-9.0% 184,305(29,382)(22,036) 1,036,351-2.1% 224,2318,4136,310 872,7510.7% 102,962(43,876)(32,907) 416,752-7.9% 52,063(6,383)(4,788) 232,815-2.1% 68,593(35,427)(26,570) 224,466-11.8% 48,799(20,522)(15,391) 198,364-7.8% 7,009(1,542)(1,156) 34,033-3.4% -5.5% AdjustedBVPS(Rmb)Mid-pointfairP/B TargetpricePotentialupside/downside CurrentpriceAdjusted13EPB Rating 3.441.46 6.2032.2% 4.691.11 Buy 2.930.97 3.5018.2% 2.960.82 Neutral 4.031.46 7.3033.0% 5.491.10 Buy 2.711.40 4.7051.6% 3.100.93 Buy 5.160.90 5.705.0% 5.430.85 Sell 10.571.58 20.6049.1% 13.821.06 Buy* 4.230.88 4.6018.3% 3.890.74 Neutral 6.291.18 9.2045.6% 6.320.81 Buy 3.540.94 4.1028.1% 3.200.73 Buy 31.2% Note:*denotesstockisonourregionalConvictionList.PricesareasofmarketcloseonOctober10,2012. 资料来源：Companydata,GaoHuaSecuritiesResearchestimates. 高华证券投资研究 14 2012年10月11日 图表13:Our12-monthtargetpricesforA-sharebanksarealsobasedon2013EadjustedBVPSDetailedestimatesofadjustedBVPS 中国：银行 RmbmnForecastedNPLsForecastedNPLratiosAdjusted2005NPLratios Reported2005NPLratiosAdjustmentLoansAdjustedNPLsexcludingLGFVloans LGFVloansAssumedLGFVNPLs(additional15%NPLratio) TotaladjustedNPLsTotaladjustedNPLratio 13EexcessgeneralprovisiontocoveradditionalNPLsGeneralprovision/totalloans Provisionneededtocover65%additionalNPLsShortfallofprovisionAfter-taxshortfallofprovision BookvalueImpacton13EBV AdjustedBVPS(Rmb)Mid-pointfairP/B TargetpricePotentialupside/downside CurrentpriceAdjustedPB RatingOldrating ICBC(A)141,2491.4%4.7%4.7% BOC(A)107,1941.6%5.7%5.7% 10,003,548469,583 6,746,941383,642 CCB(A)109,4471.3%3.8%3.8% 8,465,528325,305 ABC(A)133,5351.8%5.7%NA 7,297,864415,552 BoCom(A)42,9131.3%4.8%2.8%2.0% 3,373,184162,053 CMB(A)14,8710.7%3.6%2.6%1.0% 2,152,36076,984 CNCB(A)18,9521.0%5.1%4.1%1.0% 1,879,95296,539 Minsheng(SPDB 17,891 17,664 1.1% 1.0% 4.3% 5.0% 1.3% 2.0% 3.0% 3.0% 1,596,2721,812,392 68,272 90,140 Industrial10,2260.77%4.3%2.3%2.0% 1,328,00357,476 PAB9,5991.1%6.4%9.4%-3.0%846,38253,746 HuaXia9,4171.2%7.0%3.0%4.0%807,01756,872 BONB1,6430.9%3.0%NA 180,8565,426 BOBJ4,0910.7%6.4%4.4%2.0%553,27635,284 BONJ1,3210.9%4.3%3.3%1.0%152,4336,627 CEB10,5660.9%5.0%2.0%3.0% 1,176,68458,815 average 1.1%4.9%3.7% 714,000107,100 414,64562,197 451,25267,688 419,68562,953 261,75939,264 119,89217,984 186,27027,941 164,63524,695 152,24122,836 115,50017,325 53,4838,022 48,3007,245 15,1922,279 46,4756,971 12,8041,921 122,85018,428 576,6835.8% 445,8396.6% 392,9934.6% 478,5056.6% 201,3166.0% 94,9684.4% 124,4806.6% 92,9675.8% 112,9766.2% 74,8015.6% 61,7697.3% 64,1177.9% 7,7044.3% 42,2557.6% 8,5485.6% 77,2426.6% 6.1% 185,9211.9% 107,1941.6% 154,9241.8% 232,6443.2% 59,0871.8% 45,6802.1% 33,1661.8% 28,2781.8% 36,5472.0% 23,8971.8% 12,1771.4% 18,8372.3% 2,3691.3% 11,1732.0% 3,2572.1% 24,9032.1% 1.9% 283,032(97,111)(72,833) 220,119(112,925)(84,693) 184,305(29,382)(22,036) 224,2318,4136,310 102,962(43,876)(32,907) 52,063(6,383)(4,788) 68,593(35,427)(26,570) 48,799(20,522)(15,391) 61,953(25,406)(19,055) 41,974(18,077)(13,557) 33,910(21,734)(16,300) 35,555(16,717)(12,538) 3,940(1,572)(1,179) 24,806(13,634)(10,225) 4,697(1,440)(1,080) 43,340(18,437)(13,828) 1,274,033-5.7% 938,165-9.0% 1,036,351-2.1% 872,7510.7% 416,752-7.9% 232,815-2.1% 224,466-11.8% 198,364-7.8% 201,850-9.4% 187,060-7.2% 96,458-16.9% 77,786-16.1% 24,425-4.8% 76,651-13.3% 27,337-4.0% 127,656-10.8% -8.0% 3.441.46 5.0031.6% 3.801.11 Buy 2.930.97 2.906.2% 2.730.93 Neutral 4.031.46 5.9045.3% 4.061.01 Buy 2.711.40 3.8053.2% 2.480.92 Buy 5.160.90 4.709.3% 4.300.83 Neutral 10.571.58 16.7063.6% 10.210.97 Buy 4.230.88 3.700.3% 3.690.87 Neutral 6.291.18 7.4029.6% 5.710.91 Buy 9.800.90 8.8018.3% 7.440.76 Neutral 13.501.47 19.8063.5% 12.110.90 Buy* 15.650.92 14.408.4% 13.290.85 Neutral 9.530.75 7.10-13.4% 8.200.86 Sell 8.061.26 10.2011.1% 9.181.14 NeutralSell 9.060.89 8.1016.4% 6.960.77 Neutral 8.840.87 7.700.7% 7.650.87 Sell 2.870.94 2.700.7% 2.680.93 SellNeutral 21.5% Note:*denotesstockisonourregionalConvictionList.PricesareasofmarketcloseonOctober10,2012.资料来源：Companydata,GaoHuaSecuritiesResearchestimates 2)Wederiveour2013EadjustedNPLratiobyadjustingthe2005NPLratioofbanksthatdonothavereportedNPLratiosin2005(e.g.ABC).ForsomesmallerbankswithlowreportedNPLratioin2005astheygrewloansrapidlyin2004/2005,wealsoadjusttheir2005NPLratiobasedontheirexposuretohighrisksectorsandthequalityoftheirclientele,aswebelievethelowreportedNPLratioscouldbeduetotherapidloangrowthin2004and2005. Themagnitudeofadjustmentof2005NPLratioforeachbankisbasedonourfundamentalscoresforbanks’loanbookintermsoftheirloanexposuretoriskiersectors,suchasindustrial/mining,wholesale/retail,LGFVs,aswellasYangtzeriverloansandSMEloans,whichwerenegativelyimpactedbyover-borrowinghigh-costinformalloans(Exhibit14). 高华证券投资研究 15 2012年10月11日 图表14:Theloanbookriskscorebasedonexposuretoriskiersectorsin1H12 中国：银行 ManufacturingWholesale& &mining retail ICBC
5 4 CCB
4 5 ABC
2 5 BOC
1 5 BoCom
4 2 CMB
4 3 CNCB
3 2 Minsheng
5 4 CQRCB
5 5 Industrial
3 4 SPDB
2 2 PAB
2 1 Hua
xia
1 1 CEB
1 3 BOBJ
5 3 BONB
1 1 BONJ
3 1 Note:1/5representshighest/lowestexposure 资料来源：Companydata,GaoHuaSecuritiesResearchestimates. LGFVs35543521223541151 YangtzRiver44441523551234511 SMEs55554231114533222 Creditriskmgmt.trackrecord55333524142211252 Totalscore 2628242217241418191914171313181510 Bearcasescenario:Ex-growthimpliedvaluationonadjustedBVPSassumingaverage9%totalpotentialNPLratioExhibit15and16showthedetailedcalculationoftheadjustedBVPSandour12-monthtargetpricesforH-sharebanksandA-sharebanksinourbearcasescenario. Ourbearcaseassumes: 1)Theoff-balancesheetguaranteesandeptanceswillincurthesameNPLformationratesasthatofon-balancesheetloans.Thiswillhaveanegativeimpactparticularlyonsmallerbankswithaggressivegrowthofoff-balancesheetitems,suchasCNCB,PABandSPDB; 2)PotentialNPLratioforLGFVloansofaround35%,upfromaround20%inourbasecase. 高华证券投资研究 16 2012年10月11日 中国：银行 图表15:OurbearcaseimpliedvaluationforH-sharebanks,basedonex-growthP/Band2013EadjustedBVPS RmbmnOff-balancesheetguarantees/eptanceNPLratiosAdditionalNPLsfromoff-balancesheetitems ICBC(H)1,199,3104.7%56,298 BOC(H)1,542,0035.7%87,681 CCB(H)1,527,5333.8%58,699 ABC(H)974,5905.7%55,495 BoCom(H)1,040,5004.8%49,987 CMB(H)630,1273.6%22,538 CNCB(H)1,153,0965.1%59,214 Minsheng(CQRCB 874,144 4,699 4.3% 4.7% 37,387 220 AverageforHshares AdditionalNPLsfromLGFVloans(30%NPLratio) 107,100 62,197 67,688 62,953 39,264 17,984 27,941 24,695 3,054 TotaladjustedNPLsTotaladjustedNPLratios 740,0817.4% 595,7168.8% 519,3806.1% 596,9538.2% 290,5678.6% 135,4906.3% 211,63411.3% 155,0499.7% 16,4407.6% 8.2% AdditionalprovisioningAdditionalimpactonbookvalue (106,208)-6% (97,420)-8% (82,151)-6% (76,991)-7% (58,013)-10% (26,339)-8% (56,650)-19% (40,353)-15% (2,128)-5% -9.4% AdjustedBVPS(Rmb)Totalimpactonbookvalue 3.21-12% 2.68-17% 3.79-8% 2.53-6% 4.57-18% 9.65-11% 3.32-31% 5.25-23% 3.36-8% -15% Adjust2013EP/BEx-growthP/BImpliedvalueImpliedupside/downside 1.181.345.2913% 0.900.943.095% 1.171.326.1712% 0.991.243.8625% 0.960.905.08-7% 1.161.4417.1124% 0.950.883.60-7% 0.981.107.1213% 0.770.933.8821% 11% Risk-reward:(upside+downside)/2 Rating 22% 11% Buy Neutral 23% Buy 38% Buy -1% Sell 36% 5% Buy*
Neutral 29% Buy 25% Buy 21.0% Off-balancesheetitemsas%totalloans(1H12) 12% 23% 18% 13% Note:*denotesstockisonourregionalConvictionList.PricesareasofmarketcloseonOctober10,2012. 31% 29% 61% 55% 2% 资料来源：Companydata,GaoHuaSecuritiesResearchestimates. 高华证券投资研究 17 2012年10月11日 图表16:OurbearcaseimpliedvaluationforA-sharebanks,basedonex-growthP/Band2013EadjustedBVPS 中国：银行 RmbmnOff-balancesheetguarantees/eptanceNPLratiosAdditionalNPLsfromoff-balancesheetitems AdditionalNPLsfromLGFVloans(30%NPLratio) TotaladjustedNPLsTotaladjustedNPLratios AdditionalprovisioningAdditionalimpactonbookvalue AdjustedBVPS(Rmb)Totalimpactonbookvalue AdjustedP/BEx-growthP/BImpliedvalueImpliedupside/downside Risk-reward:(upside+downside)/2 RatingOldrating Off-balancesheetitemsas%totalloans(1H12) ICBC(A)BOC(A)CCB(A)ABC(A)BoCom(A)CMB(A)CNCB(A)Minsheng(SPDB IndustrialPAB HuaXiaBONB BOBJ BONJ CEB 1,199,3101,542,0031,527,533974,5901,040,500630,1271,153,096874,144911,081502,297477,194490,880 61,846 118,869 102,638 633,812 4.7% 5.7% 3.8% 5.7% 4.8% 3.6% 5.1% 4.3% 5.0% 4.3% 6.4% 7.0% 3.0% 6.4% 4.3% 5.0% 56,298 87,681 58,699 55,495 49,987 22,538 59,214 37,387 45,313 21,739 30,302 34,593 1,855 7,581 4,462 31,680 average 107,100 62,197 67,688 62,953 39,264 17,984 27,941 24,695 22,836 17,325 8,022 7,245 2,279 6,971 1,921 18,428 740,081
7.4% 595,7168.8% 519,3806.1% 596,9538.2% 290,5678.6% 135,4906.3% 211,63411.3% 155,0499.7% 181,12510.0% 113,8658.6% 100,09411.8% 105,95513.1% 11,8396.5% 56,80710.3% 14,9319.8% 127,35010.8% 9.2% (106,208)-6% (97,420)-8% (82,151)-6% (76,991)-7% (58,013)-10% (26,339)-8% (56,650)-19% (40,353)-15% (44,297)-16% (25,392)-10% (24,911)-19% (27,195)-26% (2,687)-8% (9,459)-9% (4,149)-11% (32,570)-19% -12.5% 3.21-12% 2.68-17% 3.79-8% 2.53-6% 4.57-18% 9.65-11% 3.32-31% 5.25-23% 8.02-26% 12.02-17% 12.00-36% 6.55-42% 7.36-13% 8.09-23% 7.80-15% 2.26-30% -20.5% 1.181.344.2813% 1.020.942.51-8% 1.071.325.0023% 0.981.243.1326% 0.940.904.11-4% 1.061.4413.8636% 1.110.882.92-21% 1.091.105.761% 0.930.856.83-8% 1.011.2715.2126% 1.110.9311.20-16% 1.250.785.13-37% 1.251.118.17-11% 0.860.887.163% 0.980.876.78-11% 1.190.962.16-19% -0.6% 22% -1% BuyNeutral 34% Buy 40% 2% Bu
声明：
该资讯来自于互联网网友发布，如有侵犯您的权益请联系我们。