CHANGEISNATURAL:100REASONSWHY December15th Climatechangecampaigners:100reasonswhyclimatechangeisnaturalandnotman-madeHEREarethe100reasons,releasedinadossierissuedbytheEuropeanFoundation,whyclimatechangeisnaturalandnotman-made: 1)Thereis“norealscientificproof”thatthecurrentwarmingiscausedbytheriseofgreenhousegasesfromman’sactivity. 2)Man-madecarbondioxideemissionsthroughouthumanhistoryconstitutelessthan0.00022percentofthetotalnaturallyemittedfromthemantleoftheearthduringgeologicalhistory. 3)WarmerperiodsoftheEarth’shistorycamearound800yearsbeforerisesinCO2levels. 4)AfterWorldWarII,therewasahugesurgeinrecordedCO2emissionsbutglobaltemperaturesfellforfourdecadesafter1940. 5)ThroughouttheEarth’shistory,temperatureshaveoftenbeenwarmerthannowandCO2levelshaveoftenbeenhigher–morethantentimesashigh. 6)Significantchangesinclimatehavecontinuallyurredthroughoutgeologictime. 7)The0.7Cincreaseintheaverageglobaltemperatureoverthelasthundredyearsisentirelyconsistentwithwell-established,long-term,naturalclimatetrends. 8)TheIPCCtheoryisdrivenbyjust60scientistsandfavourablereviewersnotthe4,000usuallycited. 9)Leakede-mailsfromBritishclimatescientists–inascandalknownas“Climate-gate”-suggestthatthathasbeenmanipulatedtoexaggerateglobalwarming 10)Alargebodyofscientificresearchsuggeststhatthesunisresponsibleforthegreatershareofclimatechangeduringthepasthundredyears. 11)Politiciansandactivistsclaimrisingsealevelsareadirectcauseofglobalwarmingbutsealevelsrateshavebeenincreasingsteadilysincethelasticeage10,000ago. 12)PhilipStott,EmeritusProfessorofBiogeographyattheSchoolofOrientalandAfricanStudiesinLondonsaysclimatechangeisplicatedtobecausedbyjustonefactor,whetherCO2orclouds. 13)PeterLilleyMPsaidlastmonththat“fewerpeopleinBritainthaninanyothercountrybelieveintheimportanceofglobalwarming.ThatisdespitethefactthatourGovernmentandourpoliticalclass—predominantly—aremittedtoitthantheircounterpartsinanyothercountryintheworld”. 14)Inpursuitoftheglobalwarmingrhetoric,windfarmswilldoverylittletonothingtoreduceCO2emissions 15)ProfessorPlimer,ProfessorofGeologyandEarthSciencesattheUniversityofAdelaide,statedthattheideaoftakingasingletracegasintheatmosphere,usingitandfindingitguiltyoftotalresponsibilityforclimatechange,isan“absurdity”. 16)AHarvardUniversityastrophysicistandgeophysicist,WillieSoon,saidheis“embarrassedandpuzzled”bytheshallowscienceinpapersthatsupportthepropositionthattheearthfacesaclimatecrisiscausedbyglobalwarming. 17)Thescienceofwhatdeterminestheearth’stemperatureisinfactfarfromsettledorunderstood. 18)DespiteactivistconcernsoverCO2levels,CO2isaminorgreenhousegas,unlikewatervapourwhichistiedtoclimateconcerns,andwhichwecan’tevenpretendtocontrol 19)ApetitionbyscientiststryingtotelltheworldthatthepoliticalandmediaportrayalofglobalwarmingisfalsewasputforwardintheHeidelbergAppealin1992.Today,morethan4,000signatories,including72NobelPrizewinners,from106countrieshavesignedit. 20)Itisclaimedtheaverageglobaltemperatureincreasedatadangerouslyfastrateinthe20thcenturybuttherecentrateofaverageglobaltemperaturerisehasbeenbetween1and2degreesCpercentury-withinnaturalrates 21)ProfessorZbigniewJaworowski,ChairmanoftheScientificCounciloftheCentralLaboratoryforRadiologicalProtectioninWarsaw,Polandsaystheearth’stemperaturehasmoretodowithcloudcoverandwatervaporthanCO2concentrationintheatmosphere. 22)ThereisstrongevidencefromsolarstudieswhichsuggeststhattheEarth’scurrenttemperaturestasiswillbefollowedbyclimaticcoolingoverthenextfewdecades. 23)Itismyththatrecedingglaciersareproofofglobalwarmingasglaciershavebeenrecedingandgrowingcyclicallyformanycenturies. 24)Itisafalsehoodthattheearth’spolesarewarmingbecausethatisnaturalvariationandwhilethewesternArcticmaybegettingsomewhatwarmerwealsoseethattheEasternArcticandGreenlandaregettingcolder. 25)TheIPCCclaimsclimatedriven“impactsonbiodiversityaresignificantandofkeyrelevance”butthoseclaimsaresimplynotsupportedbyscientificresearch. 26)TheIPCCthreatofclimatechangetotheworld’sspeciesdoesnotmakesenseaswildspeciesareatleastonemillionyearsold,whichmeanstheyhaveallbeenthroughhundredsofclimatecycles. 27)ResearchgoesstronglyagainstclaimsthatCO2-inducedglobalwarmingwouldcausecatastrophicdisintegrationoftheGreenlandandAntarcticIceSheets. 28)DespiteactivistconcernsoverCO2levels,risingCO2levelsareourbesthopeofraisingcropyieldstofeedanever-growingpopulation. 29)Thebiggestclimatechangeeverexperiencedonearthtookplacearound700millionyearsago. 30)Theslightincreaseintemperaturewhichhasbeenobservedsince1900isentirelyconsistentwithwell-established,long-termnaturalclimatecycles. 31)DespiteactivistconcernsoverCO2levels,risingCO2levelsofsomeso-called“greenhousegases”maybecontributingtohigheroxygenlevelsandglobalcooling,notwarming. 32)uratesatellite,balloonandobservationsmadeoverthelastthreedecadeshavenotshownanysignificantchangeinthelongtermrateofincreaseinglobaltemperatures. 33)Today’sCO2concentrationofaround385ppmisveryparedtomostoftheearth’shistory–weactuallyliveinacarbon-deficientatmosphere. 34)ItisamyththatCO2isthemongreenhousegasbecausegreenhousegasesformabout3%oftheatmospherebyvolume,andCO2constitutesabout0.037%oftheatmosphere. 35)ItisamythputermodelsverifythatCO2increaseswillcausesignificantglobalwarmingputermodelscanbemadeto“verify”anything. 36)Thereisnoscientificorstatisticalevidencewhatsoeverthatglobalwarmingwillcausemorestormsandotherweatherextremes. 37)OnestatementdeletedfromaUNreportin1996statedthat“noneofthestudiescitedabovehasshownclearevidencethatwecanattributetheobservedclimatechangestoincreasesingreenhousegases”. 38)Theworld“warmed”by0.07+/-0.07degreesCfrom1999to2008,notthe0.20degreesCexpectedbytheIPCC. 39)TheIntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChangesays“itislikelythatfuturetropicalcyclones(typhoonsandhurricanes)willemoreintense”buttherehasbeennoincreaseintheintensityorfrequencyoftropicalcyclonesglobally. 40)RisingCO2levelsintheatmospherecanbeshownnotonlytohaveanegligibleeffectontheEarth’smanyecosystems,butinsomecasestobeapositivehelptoanisms. 41)Researcherspareandcontrastclimatechangeimpactoncivilizationsfoundwarmperiodsarebeneficialtomankindandcoldperiodsharmful. 42)TheMetOfficeassertsweareinthehottestdecadesincerecordsbeganbutthisispreciselywhattheworldshouldexpectiftheclimateiscyclical. 43)RisingCO2levelsincreaseplantgrowthandmakeplantsmoreresistanttodroughtandpests. 44)Thehistoricalincreaseintheair’sCO2contenthasimprovedhumannutritionbyraisingcropyieldsduringthepast150years. 45)Theincreaseoftheair’sCO2contenthasprobablyhelpedlengthenhumanlifespanssincethebeginningoftheIndustrialRevolution. 46)TheIPCCallegesthat“climatechangecurrentlycontributestotheglobalburdenofdiseaseandprematuredeaths”buttheevidenceshowsthathighertemperaturesandrisingCO2levelshashelpedglobalpopulations. 47)InMayof2004,theRussianAcademyofSciencespublishedareportconcludingthattheKyotoProtocolhasnoscientificgroundingatall. 48)The“Climate-gate”scandalpointedtoaexpensivepubliccampaignofdisinformationandthedenigrationofscientistswhoopposedthebeliefthatCO2emissionswerecausingclimatechange. 49)TheheadofBritain’sclimatechangewatchdoghaspredictedhouseholdswillneedtospendupto£15,000onafullenergyefficiencymakeoveriftheGovernmentistomeetitsambitioustargetsforcuttingcarbonemissions. 50)Windpowerisunlikelytobetheanswertoourenergyneeds.Thewindpowerindustryarguesthatthereare“nodirectsubsidies”butitinvolvesatotalsubsidyofasmuchas£60perMWhwhichfallsdirectlyonelectricityconsumers.ThisburdenwillgrowinlinewithattemptstoachieveWindpowertargets,ordingtoarecentOFGEMreport. 51)Windfarmsarenotanefficientwaytoproduceenergy.TheBritishWindEnergyAssociation(BWEA)eptsafigureof75percentback-uppowerisrequired. 52)GlobaltemperaturesarebelowthelowendofIPCCpredictionsnotat“atendofIPCCestimates”. 53)ClimatealarmistshaveraisedtheconcernoveracidificationoftheoceansbutTomSegalstadfromOsloUniversityinNorway,andothers,havenotedthatpositionofoceanwater–includingCO2,calcium,andwater–canactasabufferingagentintheacidificationoftheoceans. 54)TheUN’sputermodelsofhuman-causedglobalwarmingpredicttheemergenceofa“hotspot”intheuppertroposphereoverthetropics.FormerresearcherintheAustralianDepartmentofClimateChange,DavidEvans,saidthereisnoevidenceofsuchahotspot. 55)TheargumentthatclimatechangeisaofresultofglobalwarmingcausedbyhumanactivityistheargumentofflatEarthers. 56)ThemannerinwhichUSPresidentBarackObamasidesteppedCongresstoorderemissioncutsshowshowundemocraticandirrationaltheentireinternationaldecision-makingprocesshasewithregardstoemission-targetsetting. 57)WilliamKininmonth,aformerheadoftheNationalClimateCentreandaconsultanttotheWorldMeteorologicalOrganisation,wrote“thelikelyextentofglobaltemperaturerisefromadoublingofCO2islessthan1C.Suchwarmingiswellwithintheenvelopeofvariationexperiencedduringthepast10,000yearsandinsignificantinthecontextofglacialcyclesduringthepastmillionyears,whenEarthhasbeenpredominantlyverycoldandcoveredbyextensiveicesheets.” 58)Canadahasshowntheworldtargetsderivedfromtheexistingmitmentswerealwaysunrealisticanddidnotworkforthecountry. 59)IntheleaduptotheCopenhagensummit,DavidDavisMPsaidofpreviousclimatesummits,atRiodeJaneiroin1992andKyotoin1997thatmanyhadpromisedgreatercuts,but“neitherhappened”,butwearecontinuingalongthesamelines. 60)TheUK’senvironmentalpolicyhasalong-termpricetagofabout£55billion,beforetakingintoounttheimpactonitseconomicgrowth. 61)TheUN’spanelonclimatechangewarnedthatHimalayanglacierscouldmelttoafifthofcurrentlevelsby2035.J.GrahamCogleyaprofessoratOntarioTrentUniversity,claimsthisuratestatingtheUNauthorsgotthedatefromanearlierreportwrongbymorethan300years. 62)UnderexistingKyotoobligationstheEUhasattemptedtoclaimess,whileactuallyincreasingemissionsby13percent,ordingtoLordLawson.InadditiontheEUhaspursuedthisschemebypurchasing“offsets”fromcountriessuchasChinapayingthembillionsofdollarstodestroyatmosphericpollutants,suchasCFC-23,whichweremanufacturedpurelyinordertobedestroyed. 63)Itisclaimedthattheaverageglobaltemperaturewasrelativelyunchanginginpre-industrialtimesbutsky-rocketedsince1900,andwillincreasebyseveraldegreesmoreoverthenext100yearsordingtoPennStateUniversityresearcherMichaelMann.Thereisnoconvincingempiricalevidencethatpastclimatewasunchanging,northat20thcenturychangesinaverageglobaltemperaturewereunusualorunnatural. 64)MichaelMannofPennStateUniversityhasactuallyshownthattheMedievalWarmPeriodandtheLittleIceAgedidinfactexist,whichcontrastswithhisearlierworkwhichproducedthe“hockeystickgraph”whichshowedaconstanttemperatureoverthepastthousandyearsorsofollowedbyarecentdramaticupturn. 65)Theglobe’scurrentapproachtoclimatechangeinwhichmajorindustrialisedcountries agreetononsensicaltargetsfortheirCO2emissionsbyagivendate,asithasbeenundertheKyotosystem,isveryexpensive. 66)The“Climate-gate”scandalrevealedthatascientificteamhademailedoneanotheraboutusinga“trick”forthesakeofconcealinga“decline”intemperatureswhenlookingatthehistoryoftheEarth’stemperature. 67)Globaltemperatureshavenotriseninanystatistically-significantsensefor15yearsandhaveactuallybeenfallingfornineyears.The“Climate-gate”scandalrevealedascientificteamhadexpresseddismayatthefactglobalwarmingwascontrarytotheirpredictionsandadmittedtheirinabilitytoexplainitwas“atravesty”. 68)TheIPCCpredictsthatawarmerwillleadtomoreextremeweather,includingdrought,flooding,storms,snow,andwildfires.Butoverthelastcentury,duringwhichtheIPCCclaimstheworldexperiencedmorerapidwarmingthananytimeinthepasttwomillennia,theworlddidnotexperiencesignificantlygreatertrendsinanyoftheseextremeweatherevents. 69)Inexplainingtheaveragetemperaturestandstillwearecurrentlyexperiencing,theMetOfficeHadleyCentreranaseriesputerclimatepredictionsandfoundinmanyofputerrunsthereweredecade-longstandstillsbutnonefor15years–soitexpectsglobalwarmingtoresumeswiftly. 70)RichardLindzen,ProfessorofAtmosphericSciencesatMassachusettsInstituteofTechnology,wrote:“Thenotionofastatic,unchangingclimateisforeigntothehistoryoftheEarthoranyotherwithafluidenvelope.Suchhysteria(overglobalwarming)simplyrepresentsthescientificilliteracyofmuchofthepublic,thesusceptibilityofthepublictothesubstitutionofrepetitionfortruth.” 71)Despitethe1997KyotoProtocol’sstatusastheflagshipofthefightagainstclimatechangeithasbeenafailure. 72)ThefirstphaseoftheEU’sEmissionsTradingScheme(ETS),whichranfrom2005to2007wasafailure.Hugeover-allocationofpermitstopolluteledtoacollapseinthepriceofcarbonfrom€33tojust€0.20pertonnemeaningthesystemdidnotreduceemissionsatall. 73)TheEUtradingscheme,tomanagecarbonemissionspletelyfailedandactuallyallowsEuropeanbusinessestoduckoutofmakingtheiremissionsreductionsathomebyoffsetting,whichmeanspayingforcutstobemadeoverseasinstead. 74)Todate“capandtrade”carbonmarketshavedonealmostnothingtoreduceemissions. 75)IntheUnitedStates,thecap-and-tradeisanapproachdesignedtocontrolcarbonemissionsandwillimposehugecostsuponAmericancitizensviaacarbontaxonallgoodsandservicesproducedintheUnitedStates.Theaveragefamilyoffourcanexpecttopayanadditional$1700,or£1,043,moreeachyear.ItispredictedthattheUnitedStateswilllosemorethan2millionjobsastheresultofcap-and-tradeschemes. 76)DrRoySpencer,aprincipalresearchscientistattheUniversityofAlabamainHuntsville,has indicatedthatoutofthe21climatemodelstrackedbytheIPCCthedifferencesinwarmingexhibitedbythosemodelsismostlytheresultofdifferentstrengthsofpositivecloudfeedback–andthatincreasingCO2isinsufficienttoexplainglobal-averagewarminginthelast50to100years. 77)Whyshouldpoliticiansdevoteourscarceresourcesinapetitiveworldtoafalseandill-definedproblem,whileignoringtherealproblemstheentirefaces,suchas:poverty,hunger,diseaseorterrorism. 78)Aproperanalysisoficecorerecordsfromthepast650,000yearsdemonstratesthattemperatureincreasesebefore,andnotresultedfrom,increasesinCO2byhundredsofyears. 79)Sincethecauseofglobalwarmingismostlynatural,thenthereisinactualfactverylittlewecandoaboutit.(Wearestillnotabletocontrolthesun). 80)Asubstantialnumberofthepanelof2,500climatescientistsontheUnitedNation’sInternationalPanelonClimateChange,whichcreatedastatementonscientificunanimityonclimatechangeandman-madeglobalwarming,werefoundtohaveseriousconcerns. 81)TheUK’sMetOfficehasbeenforcedthisyeartore-examine160yearsoftemperaturedataafteradmittingthatpublicconfidenceinthescienceonman-madeglobalwarminghasbeenshatteredbyrevelationsaboutthedata. 82)Politiciansandactivistspushforrenewableenergysourcessuchaswindturbinesundertherhetoricofclimatechange,butitisessentiallyaboutmoney–underthesystemofRenewableObligations.Muchofthemoneyispaidforbyconsumersinelectricitybills.Itamountsto£1billionayear. 83)The“Climate-gate”scandalrevealedthatascientificteamhadtamperedwiththeirowndatasoastoconcealinconsistenciesanderrors. 84)The“Climate-gate”scandalrevealedthatascientificteamhadcampaignedfortheremovalofalearnedjournal’seditor,solelybecausehedidnotsharetheirwillingnesstodebasescienceforpoliticalpurposes. 85)Ice-coredataclearlyshowthattemperatureschangecenturiesbeforeconcentrationsofatmosphericCO2change.Thus,thereappearstobelittleevidenceforinsistingthatchangesinconcentrationsofCO2arethecauseofpasttemperatureandclimatechange. 86)TherearenoexperimentallyverifiedprocessesexplaininghowCO2concentrationscanfallinafewcenturieswithoutfallingtemperatures–infactitischangingtemperatureswhichcausechangesinCO2concentrations,whichisconsistentwithexperimentsthatshowCO2istheatmosphericgasmostreadilyabsorbedbywater. 87)TheGovernment’sRenewableEnergyStrategycontainsamassiveincreaseinelectricitygenerationbywindpowercostingaround£4billionayearoverthenexttwentyyears.The benefitswillbeonly£4to£5billionoverall(notperannum).Socostswilloutnumberbenefitsbyarangeofbetweenelevenandseventeentimes. 88)WhilstCO2levelshaveindeedchangedforvariousreasons,humanandotherwise,justastheyhavethroughouthistory,theCO2contentoftheatmospherehasincreasedsincethebeginningoftheindustrialrevolution,andthegrowthratehasnowbeenconstantforthepast25years. 89)ItisamyththatCO2isapollutant,becausenitrogenforms80%ofouratmosphereandhumanbeingscouldnotlivein100%nitrogeneither:CO2isnomoreapollutantthannitrogenisandCO2isessentialtolife. 90)PoliticiansandclimateactivistsmakeclaimstorisingsealevelsbutcertainmembersintheIPCCchoseanareatomeasureinHongKongthatissubsiding.Theyusedtherecordreadingof2.3mmperyearriseofsealevel. 91)TheeptedglobalaveragetemperaturestatisticsusedbytheIntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChangeshowthatnoground-basedwarminghasurredsince1998. 92)Ifonefactorsinnon-greenhouseinfluencessuchasElNinoeventsandlargevolcaniceruptions,loweratmospheresatellite-basedtemperaturemeasurementsshowlittle,ifany,globalwarmingsince1979,aperiodoverwhichatmosphericCO2hasincreasedby55ppm(17percent). 93)USPresidentBarackObamapledgedtocutemissionsby2050toequalthoseof1910whentherewere92millionAmericans.In2050,therewillbe420millionAmericans,soObama’spromisemeansthatemissionsperheadwillbeapproximatelywhattheywerein1875.Itsimplywillnothappen. 94)TheEuropeanUnionhasalreadyagreedtocutemissionsby20percentto2020,paredwith1990levels,andiswillingtoincreasethetargetto30percent.However,theseareunachievableandtheEUhasalreadymassivelyfailedwithitsEmissionsTradingScheme(ETS),asEUemissionsactuallyroseby0.8percentfrom2005to2006andareknowntobewellabovetheKyotogoal. 95)Australiahasstateditwantstoslashgreenhouseemissionsbyupto25percentbelow2000levelsby2020,butthepledgesweresounpopularthatthecountry’sSenatehasvotedagainstthecarbontradingBill,andtheOpposition’sPartyleaderhasnowbeenoustedbyaclimatechangesceptic. 96)Canadaplanstoreduceemissionsby20paredwith2006levelsby2020,representingapproximatelya3percentcutfrom1990levelsbutitsimultaneouslydefendsitsAlbertatarsandsemissionsanditsrecordasoneoftheworld’shighestper-capitaemissionssetters. 97)Indiaplanstoreducetheratioofemissionstoproductionby20-25paredwith2005levelsby2020,butallGovernmentofficialsinsistthatsinceIndiahastogrowforitsdevelopmentandpovertyalleviation,ithastoemit,becausetheeconomyisdrivenbycarbon. 98)TheLeipzigDeclarationin1996,wassignedby110scientistswhosaid:“We–alongwithmanyofourfellowcitizens–areapprehensiveabouttheclimatetreatyconferencescheduledforKyoto,Japan,inDecember1997”and“basedonalltheevidenceavailabletous,wecannotsubscribetothepoliticallyinspiredworldviewthatenvisagesclimatecatastrophesandcallsforhastyactions.” 99)AUSOregonPetitionProjectstated“WeurgetheUnitedStatesgovernmenttorejecttheglobalwarmingagreementthatwaswritteninKyoto,JapaninDecember,1997,andanyothersimilarproposals.Theproposedlimitsongreenhousegaseswouldharmtheenvironment,hindertheadvanceofscienceandtechnology,anddamagethehealthandwelfareofmankind.ThereisnoconvincingscientificevidencethathumanreleaseofCO2,methane,orothergreenhousegassesiscausingorwill,intheforeseeablefuture,causecatastrophicheatingoftheEarth’satmosphereanddisruptionoftheEarth’sclimate.” 100)AreportbytheNongovernmentalInternationalPanelonClimateChangeconcluded“WefindnosupportfortheIPCC’sclaimthatclimateobservationsduringthetwentiethcenturyareeitherunprecedentedorprovideevidenceofananthropogeniceffectonclimate.”